The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 233 (37 on the archive and 196 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 101
Defender wins (Russian): 132
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1090 | 1090 | 50% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
1040 | 1013 | 54% | 2022-02-13 | Lost |
1013 | 1040 | 46% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
1073 | 1115 | 44% | 2021-08-01 | Won |
1006 | 1011 | 49% | 2020-08-28 | Lost |
881 | 1006 | 33% | 2019-01-10 | Lost |
961 | 969 | 49% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
1001 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
1001 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2018-05-30 | Won |
1013 | 1008 | 51% | 2018-02-19 | Lost |
993 | 1026 | 45% | 2017-10-20 | Lost |
1026 | 1153 | 32% | 2017-10-09 | Lost |
1109 | 953 | 71% | 2017-09-23 | Won |
1006 | 1049 | 44% | 2017-07-08 | Lost |
961 | 1006 | 44% | 2017-06-30 | Won |
1135 | 895 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | Won |
966 | 1153 | 25% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
1153 | 1006 | 70% | 2014-09-01 | Lost |
952 | 1109 | 29% | 2014-07-20 | Lost |
1006 | 973 | 55% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
944 | 1115 | 27% | 2013-04-29 | Won |
952 | 919 | 55% | 2012-11-19 | Won |
1068 | 1049 | 53% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
1006 | 924 | 62% | 2012-09-01 | Won |
925 | 904 | 53% | 2012-07-16 | Lost |
977 | 852 | 67% | 2012-01-30 | Lost |
1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2008-12-27 | Won |
1287 | 1360 | 40% | 2008-02-10 | Lost |
919 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-01 | Lost |
1006 | 961 | 56% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-06-22 | Won |
1017 | 1017 | 50% | 2005-01-12 | Won |
1063 | 992 | 60% | 2004-10-10 | Won |
1142 | 1148 | 49% | 2004-08-21 | Won |
945 | 1083 | 31% | 1998-01-25 | Won |
1049 | 990 | 58% | 1992-05-05 | Lost |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1015.6 vs 1021.4 has a 49.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).