Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 186 (141 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 95
Defender wins (German): 91
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|---|---|---|---|
1024 | 1024 | 50% | 2024-02-25 | Won |
1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2023-12-11 | Won |
1090 | 1090 | 50% | 2023-10-16 | Won |
1030 | 1012 | 53% | 2022-11-27 | Won |
930 | 1055 | 33% | 2022-11-27 | Won |
986 | 1062 | 39% | 2022-11-05 | Won |
898 | 986 | 38% | 2022-10-15 | Lost |
933 | 931 | 50% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
933 | 931 | 50% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
933 | 931 | 50% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
1178 | 1150 | 54% | 2022-06-02 | Won |
1144 | 1006 | 69% | 2022-04-07 | Won |
1061 | 949 | 66% | 2022-01-15 | Won |
961 | 961 | 50% | 2021-05-11 | Lost |
1079 | 971 | 65% | 2021-02-25 | Lost |
920 | 1080 | 28% | 2021-01-04 | Won |
780 | 896 | 34% | 2020-10-02 | Lost |
988 | 1034 | 43% | 2020-08-13 | Lost |
949 | 915 | 55% | 2020-07-29 | Won |
1049 | 1144 | 37% | 2020-07-16 | Won |
1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-06-06 | Won |
949 | 949 | 50% | 2020-05-15 | Lost |
1039 | 802 | 80% | 2020-03-11 | Won |
1061 | 1061 | 50% | 2020-03-01 | Lost |
920 | 892 | 54% | 2020-02-10 | Won |
1009 | 982 | 54% | 2019-11-17 | Won |
1100 | 1032 | 60% | 2019-09-29 | Lost |
999 | 963 | 55% | 2019-09-28 | Won |
1152 | 1006 | 70% | 2019-09-04 | Lost |
1171 | 1113 | 58% | 2019-09-04 | Lost |
1131 | 916 | 78% | 2019-06-07 | Won |
977 | 1009 | 45% | 2019-06-07 | Lost |
990 | 1013 | 47% | 2019-03-23 | Lost |
1006 | 1041 | 45% | 2019-02-06 | Lost |
1026 | 1006 | 53% | 2019-01-29 | Lost |
1157 | 1037 | 67% | 2018-11-12 | Lost |
1112 | 971 | 69% | 2018-10-10 | Lost |
984 | 984 | 50% | 2018-08-14 | Won |
1049 | 990 | 58% | 2018-08-10 | Lost |
998 | 969 | 54% | 2018-07-08 | Lost |
926 | 944 | 47% | 2018-06-28 | Lost |
934 | 998 | 41% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
998 | 946 | 57% | 2018-06-10 | Won |
998 | 911 | 62% | 2018-01-13 | Won |
911 | 998 | 38% | 2018-01-06 | Lost |
933 | 1158 | 21% | 2017-12-28 | Lost |
998 | 933 | 59% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
905 | 935 | 46% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
1108 | 1057 | 57% | 2017-11-19 | Won |
1055 | 991 | 59% | 2017-07-12 | Won |
1016 | 981 | 55% | 2017-04-14 | Lost |
947 | 934 | 52% | 2017-01-03 | Won |
1031 | 1042 | 48% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
1109 | 966 | 69% | 2016-06-01 | Won |
1068 | 1068 | 50% | 2016-03-06 | Lost |
1071 | 1013 | 58% | 2016-02-01 | Lost |
1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2016-01-02 | Lost |
1158 | 1012 | 70% | 2015-12-29 | Won |
1225 | 1171 | 58% | 2015-12-05 | Won |
1008 | 993 | 52% | 2015-11-01 | Lost |
1113 | 1006 | 65% | 2015-09-12 | Won |
1113 | 1127 | 48% | 2015-08-27 | Lost |
940 | 931 | 51% | 2015-08-18 | Lost |
1109 | 849 | 82% | 2015-08-12 | Won |
1026 | 993 | 55% | 2015-06-03 | Won |
882 | 887 | 49% | 2015-05-15 | Lost |
1137 | 1109 | 54% | 2015-01-30 | Lost |
1158 | 1012 | 70% | 2014-10-27 | Won |
989 | 847 | 69% | 2014-10-25 | Lost |
1137 | 1004 | 68% | 2014-07-12 | Lost |
1095 | 1100 | 49% | 2014-06-16 | Won |
1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2014-04-09 | Lost |
970 | 847 | 67% | 2014-04-02 | Won |
1086 | 1227 | 31% | 2014-03-20 | Lost |
984 | 1021 | 45% | 2014-03-18 | Won |
1021 | 984 | 55% | 2014-03-18 | Won |
1016 | 993 | 53% | 2014-02-27 | Won |
997 | 1002 | 49% | 2014-02-04 | Won |
1135 | 1095 | 56% | 2013-10-23 | Won |
1109 | 989 | 67% | 2013-09-13 | Won |
1073 | 1109 | 45% | 2013-07-12 | Lost |
1109 | 1073 | 55% | 2013-07-12 | Lost |
900 | 1055 | 29% | 2013-02-25 | Lost |
1022 | 976 | 57% | 2013-01-24 | Won |
1030 | 1027 | 50% | 2012-12-21 | Lost |
1017 | 1017 | 50% | 2012-08-19 | Won |
1068 | 976 | 63% | 2012-05-19 | Won |
890 | 976 | 38% | 2012-04-30 | Lost |
1009 | 1010 | 50% | 2012-01-29 | Won |
1020 | 1197 | 27% | 2011-10-22 | Lost |
1051 | 972 | 61% | 2011-10-16 | Lost |
985 | 1023 | 45% | 2011-09-24 | Lost |
1031 | 1125 | 37% | 2010-12-20 | Lost |
1056 | 1046 | 51% | 2010-12-06 | Won |
982 | 937 | 56% | 2010-10-01 | Won |
1040 | 963 | 61% | 2010-09-13 | Won |
1048 | 1062 | 48% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-09-02 | Won |
1012 | 1003 | 51% | 2010-04-12 | Lost |
1003 | 1012 | 49% | 2010-03-29 | Won |
1049 | 990 | 58% | 2010-03-10 | Won |
1084 | 1030 | 58% | 2010-01-12 | Lost |
953 | 1115 | 28% | 2009-11-11 | Lost |
933 | 963 | 46% | 2009-10-18 | Lost |
1004 | 1157 | 29% | 2009-10-04 | Lost |
1006 | 1144 | 31% | 2009-09-01 | Won |
1115 | 976 | 69% | 2009-08-14 | Lost |
952 | 958 | 49% | 2009-08-02 | Lost |
989 | 1035 | 43% | 2009-06-27 | Won |
1030 | 960 | 60% | 2009-06-24 | Lost |
1049 | 1131 | 38% | 2009-06-06 | Lost |
871 | 1003 | 32% | 2009-04-18 | Won |
1003 | 1083 | 39% | 2009-04-18 | Lost |
1006 | 992 | 52% | 2009-03-25 | Won |
993 | 1307 | 14% | 2009-03-10 | Lost |
1307 | 1181 | 67% | 2009-03-10 | Lost |
1135 | 1032 | 64% | 2008-07-16 | Lost |
879 | 1013 | 32% | 2008-06-21 | Lost |
1122 | 1037 | 62% | 2008-03-09 | Lost |
1157 | 913 | 80% | 2008-03-01 | Lost |
890 | 1062 | 27% | 2007-11-08 | Lost |
1013 | 1006 | 51% | 2007-08-21 | Won |
887 | 967 | 39% | 2007-04-13 | Lost |
994 | 967 | 54% | 2006-10-27 | Won |
1067 | 1096 | 46% | 2006-07-20 | Won |
862 | 922 | 41% | 2005-09-01 | Lost |
967 | 967 | 50% | 2005-04-16 | Lost |
992 | 891 | 64% | 2004-06-13 | Won |
1096 | 916 | 74% | 2004-04-20 | Lost |
1307 | 1287 | 53% | 2004-04-01 | Lost |
1019 | 1055 | 45% | 2004-01-15 | Won |
1227 | 940 | 84% | 2004-01-10 | Won |
1097 | 614 | 94% | 2002-01-26 | Lost |
1022 | 831 | 75% | 2001-02-03 | Won |
986 | 1006 | 47% | 1997-01-31 | Won |
1001 | 1227 | 21% | 1996-11-15 | Lost |
1227 | 985 | 80% | 1995-11-04 | Won |
Attacking (72 wins) average ELOs: 1030.1 vs 1013.4 has a 52.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).