A Real Barn Burner
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 207 (59 on the archive and 148 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 122
Defender wins (German): 85
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1013 | 919 | 63% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
1013 | 919 | 63% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
1002 | 1030 | 46% | 2022-08-15 | Won |
1018 | 1429 | 9% | 2022-06-15 | Won |
920 | 929 | 49% | 2022-06-14 | Won |
970 | 1051 | 39% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
1171 | 1000 | 73% | 2021-08-19 | Lost |
1159 | 1034 | 67% | 2021-03-09 | Won |
992 | 1204 | 23% | 2021-03-09 | Lost |
1041 | 1204 | 28% | 2021-03-07 | Won |
865 | 780 | 62% | 2021-01-12 | Lost |
1095 | 1116 | 47% | 2020-11-03 | Lost |
992 | 1022 | 46% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
1009 | 1168 | 29% | 2020-10-25 | Won |
1008 | 1008 | 50% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
1159 | 1019 | 69% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
1049 | 1052 | 50% | 2020-07-18 | Lost |
1204 | 1144 | 59% | 2020-02-12 | Lost |
1041 | 1058 | 48% | 2020-02-11 | Won |
1016 | 1058 | 44% | 2019-10-12 | Lost |
866 | 1108 | 20% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
1013 | 967 | 57% | 2019-07-20 | Won |
986 | 989 | 50% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
1012 | 905 | 65% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
1109 | 1208 | 36% | 2018-12-14 | Won |
1108 | 1101 | 51% | 2018-09-29 | Won |
958 | 926 | 55% | 2018-05-26 | Won |
972 | 972 | 50% | 2018-05-24 | Won |
945 | 989 | 44% | 2018-03-25 | Lost |
1109 | 1208 | 36% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
1070 | 1013 | 58% | 2017-12-03 | Won |
1001 | 1003 | 50% | 2017-11-18 | Lost |
1063 | 1084 | 47% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
1020 | 980 | 56% | 2017-10-06 | Won |
980 | 1038 | 42% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
1025 | 1284 | 18% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
997 | 997 | 50% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
1273 | 1160 | 66% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
1307 | 917 | 90% | 2017-09-01 | Won |
1087 | 955 | 68% | 2017-08-11 | Won |
1204 | 881 | 87% | 2017-07-22 | Won |
905 | 977 | 40% | 2017-06-25 | Won |
1077 | 1176 | 36% | 2017-06-25 | Lost |
932 | 1127 | 25% | 2017-05-22 | Lost |
989 | 1028 | 44% | 2017-04-24 | Lost |
1060 | 1013 | 57% | 2017-04-18 | Won |
1028 | 1029 | 50% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
1160 | 873 | 84% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
1142 | 1225 | 38% | 2017-04-08 | Lost |
925 | 1204 | 17% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
1149 | 1327 | 26% | 2017-03-17 | Lost |
1360 | 1012 | 88% | 2017-03-11 | Won |
1050 | 1284 | 21% | 2017-03-10 | Won |
1010 | 1027 | 48% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
1010 | 1027 | 48% | 2017-03-04 | Won |
958 | 1045 | 38% | 2017-02-20 | Lost |
984 | 1087 | 36% | 2017-02-16 | Lost |
992 | 909 | 62% | 2017-01-14 | Won |
Attacking (37 wins) average ELOs: 1043.2 vs 1053.8 has a 48.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).