The Fugitives
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 253 (37 on the archive and 216 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 101
Defender wins (Russian): 150
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 966 | 982 | 48% | 2025-09-07 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1064 | 42% | 2025-02-05 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1019 | 60% | 2024-02-24 | Won |
| 865 | 865 | 50% | 2024-02-17 | Won |
| 988 | 937 | 57% | 2021-08-12 | Lost |
| 1173 | 924 | 81% | 2021-06-20 | Won |
| 924 | 1173 | 19% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1035 | 53% | 2020-11-11 | Lost |
| 988 | 1018 | 46% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1028 | 884 | 70% | 2018-07-17 | Lost |
| 892 | 943 | 43% | 2017-10-15 | Lost |
| 1065 | 979 | 62% | 2017-10-02 | Lost |
| 958 | 1064 | 35% | 2016-11-16 | Lost |
| 998 | 1052 | 42% | 2015-11-25 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1087 | 51% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1114 | 890 | 78% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1127 | 862 | 82% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1151 | 1064 | 62% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 975 | 982 | 49% | 2013-08-14 | Won |
| 900 | 1077 | 27% | 2013-02-15 | Lost |
| 959 | 880 | 61% | 2012-12-10 | Lost |
| 1046 | 951 | 63% | 2012-11-20 | Won |
| 943 | 1108 | 28% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 1134 | 941 | 75% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 1015 | 1045 | 46% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1055 | 1023 | 55% | 2010-10-31 | Lost |
| 1056 | 933 | 67% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1118 | 1029 | 63% | 2006-11-07 | Won |
| 943 | 1011 | 40% | 2006-10-12 | Lost |
| 1146 | 933 | 77% | 2004-12-05 | Won |
| 1264 | 1292 | 46% | 1999-02-07 | Won |
| 1085 | 1072 | 52% | 1998-08-01 | Lost |
| 894 | 1019 | 33% | 1998-05-03 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1160 | 42% | 1996-08-13 | Lost |
| 1162 | 911 | 81% | 1994-03-02 | Lost |
| 1065 | 984 | 61% | 1992-04-11 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1018 | 53% | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1037.4 vs 1005.7 has a 54.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).