The Fugitives
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 250 (36 on the archive and 214 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 99
Defender wins (Russian): 149
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1202 | 1219 | 48% | 2025-02-05 | Lost |
| 1129 | 969 | 72% | 2024-02-24 | Won |
| 865 | 865 | 50% | 2024-02-17 | Won |
| 896 | 939 | 44% | 2021-08-12 | Lost |
| 1173 | 924 | 81% | 2021-06-20 | Won |
| 924 | 1173 | 19% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1035 | 50% | 2020-11-11 | Lost |
| 896 | 1020 | 33% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1014 | 966 | 57% | 2018-07-17 | Lost |
| 892 | 946 | 42% | 2017-10-15 | Lost |
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2017-10-02 | Lost |
| 960 | 1219 | 18% | 2016-11-16 | Lost |
| 931 | 1051 | 33% | 2015-11-25 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1087 | 53% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1126 | 861 | 82% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1110 | 889 | 78% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1163 | 1219 | 42% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 973 | 1032 | 42% | 2013-08-14 | Won |
| 900 | 1165 | 18% | 2013-02-15 | Lost |
| 962 | 881 | 61% | 2012-12-10 | Lost |
| 1042 | 951 | 63% | 2012-11-20 | Won |
| 944 | 1094 | 30% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 1038 | 900 | 69% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 945 | 1044 | 36% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1053 | 1082 | 46% | 2010-10-31 | Lost |
| 1043 | 933 | 65% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1099 | 1029 | 60% | 2006-11-07 | Won |
| 943 | 1010 | 40% | 2006-10-12 | Lost |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2004-12-05 | Won |
| 1032 | 1210 | 26% | 2004-10-16 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1088 | 39% | 1998-08-01 | Lost |
| 893 | 1029 | 31% | 1998-05-03 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1133 | 46% | 1996-08-13 | Lost |
| 1223 | 911 | 86% | 1994-03-02 | Lost |
| 1066 | 984 | 62% | 1992-04-11 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1121 | 49% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1023.6 vs 1028.4 has a 49.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).