The Fugitives
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 248 (34 on the archive and 214 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 99
Defender wins (Russian): 147
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1132 | 966 | 72% | 2024-02-24 | Won |
| 865 | 865 | 50% | 2024-02-17 | Won |
| 963 | 941 | 53% | 2021-08-12 | Lost |
| 1173 | 924 | 81% | 2021-06-20 | Won |
| 924 | 1173 | 19% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1035 | 50% | 2020-11-11 | Lost |
| 963 | 1020 | 42% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1010 | 878 | 68% | 2018-07-17 | Lost |
| 892 | 996 | 35% | 2017-10-15 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1030 | 47% | 2017-10-02 | Lost |
| 961 | 1118 | 29% | 2016-11-16 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1087 | 56% | 2014-07-02 | Won |
| 1111 | 889 | 78% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1139 | 863 | 83% | 2013-10-26 | Won |
| 1163 | 1118 | 56% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 974 | 1012 | 45% | 2013-08-14 | Won |
| 900 | 1164 | 18% | 2013-02-15 | Lost |
| 924 | 911 | 52% | 2012-12-10 | Lost |
| 1025 | 951 | 60% | 2012-11-20 | Won |
| 944 | 1094 | 30% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 1022 | 954 | 60% | 2011-10-02 | Won |
| 958 | 1044 | 38% | 2011-06-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 1046 | 53% | 2010-10-31 | Lost |
| 1044 | 933 | 65% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1099 | 1029 | 60% | 2006-11-07 | Won |
| 943 | 1010 | 40% | 2006-10-12 | Lost |
| 1036 | 946 | 63% | 2004-12-05 | Won |
| 1012 | 1206 | 25% | 2004-10-16 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1095 | 40% | 1998-08-01 | Lost |
| 893 | 1043 | 30% | 1998-05-03 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1128 | 50% | 1996-08-13 | Lost |
| 1135 | 911 | 78% | 1994-03-02 | Lost |
| 1008 | 983 | 54% | 1992-04-11 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1160 | 43% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1020.9 vs 1015.4 has a 50.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).