The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 247 (47 on the archive and 200 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 106
Defender wins (Russian): 141
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2025-04-17 | Won |
| 993 | 984 | 51% | 2025-03-15 | Won |
| 930 | 1101 | 27% | 2025-01-30 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 937 | 950 | 48% | 2022-02-13 | Lost |
| 950 | 937 | 52% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1108 | 45% | 2021-08-01 | Won |
| 984 | 1010 | 46% | 2020-08-28 | Lost |
| 878 | 984 | 35% | 2019-01-10 | Lost |
| 941 | 974 | 45% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 999 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2018-05-30 | Won |
| 950 | 1010 | 41% | 2018-02-19 | Lost |
| 1046 | 997 | 57% | 2017-10-20 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1221 | 25% | 2017-10-09 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1140 | 56% | 2017-10-08 | Lost |
| 1101 | 951 | 70% | 2017-09-23 | Won |
| 1056 | 975 | 61% | 2017-07-08 | Lost |
| 959 | 1056 | 36% | 2017-06-30 | Won |
| 1135 | 897 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | Won |
| 958 | 1221 | 18% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1221 | 1056 | 72% | 2014-09-01 | Lost |
| 951 | 1101 | 30% | 2014-07-20 | Lost |
| 984 | 974 | 51% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 943 | 1108 | 28% | 2013-04-29 | Won |
| 951 | 919 | 55% | 2012-11-19 | Won |
| 1063 | 1050 | 52% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 984 | 948 | 55% | 2012-09-01 | Won |
| 1186 | 1057 | 68% | 2012-07-16 | Lost |
| 903 | 853 | 57% | 2012-01-30 | Lost |
| 1056 | 993 | 59% | 2008-12-27 | Won |
| 1287 | 1420 | 32% | 2008-02-10 | Lost |
| 920 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-01 | Lost |
| 1056 | 959 | 64% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-06-22 | Won |
| 1077 | 989 | 62% | 2005-01-12 | Won |
| 1066 | 982 | 62% | 2004-10-10 | Won |
| 1181 | 1130 | 57% | 2004-08-21 | Won |
| 1109 | 1109 | 50% | 2002-03-29 | Lost |
| 940 | 1041 | 36% | 1998-01-25 | Won |
| 1149 | 1250 | 36% | 1997-11-09 | Won |
| 800 | 1140 | 12% | 1997-04-01 | Won |
| 1177 | 881 | 85% | 1994-04-30 | Lost |
| 975 | 984 | 49% | 1992-05-05 | Lost |
| 1068 | 984 | 62% | 1990-04-25 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1000 | 62% | | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1032.7 vs 1037.5 has a 49.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).