Bridge to Nowhere
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 214 (33 on the archive and 181 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 123
Defender wins (Russian): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1140 | 1044 | 63% | 2022-03-04 | | Won |
| 1195 | 1021 | 73% | 2022-03-04 | | Won |
| 1052 | 987 | 59% | 2019-05-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2018-03-17 | | Won |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-10-22 | | Won |
| 1243 | 1021 | 78% | 2016-01-18 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1243 | 38% | 2015-11-16 | | Lost |
| 1102 | 1035 | 60% | 2015-08-10 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2015-06-06 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2015-04-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2015-01-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2014-11-30 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1028 | 68% | 2014-10-12 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2014-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2013-02-20 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2012-08-16 | | Lost |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 2011-11-19 | | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2010-11-15 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1028 | 68% | 2010-04-28 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2008-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2007-12-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2007-07-02 | | Won |
| 1101 | 988 | 66% | 2006-03-31 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2006-02-14 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2004-08-05 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2003-12-13 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 1018 | 67% | 2003-11-07 | | Lost |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2002-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 1999-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 1997-08-12 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 1994-02-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 1993-09-10 | | Won |
Attacking (19 wins) average ELOs: 1067.6 vs 1047.6 has a 52.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).