Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 98 (68 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 45
Defender wins (French): 53
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1049 | 1008 | 56% | 2025-11-10 | Won |
| 1075 | 1058 | 52% | 2025-11-05 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1026 | 48% | 2021-12-15 | Lost |
| 1243 | 980 | 82% | 2021-06-16 | Won |
| 973 | 980 | 49% | 2021-01-23 | Won |
| 1028 | 1013 | 52% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 974 | 947 | 54% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 919 | 888 | 54% | 2020-10-18 | Won |
| 999 | 1013 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 980 | 948 | 55% | 2020-04-10 | Lost |
| 1052 | 991 | 59% | 2020-03-10 | Won |
| 1105 | 975 | 68% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 961 | 950 | 52% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1058 | 975 | 62% | 2020-02-13 | Won |
| 1117 | 1019 | 64% | 2019-09-08 | Won |
| 1068 | 970 | 64% | 2017-12-15 | Won |
| 875 | 846 | 54% | 2017-11-17 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1116 | 70% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1276 | 19% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 919 | 897 | 53% | 2016-11-29 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1031 | 49% | 2016-05-01 | Lost |
| 1114 | 985 | 68% | 2015-11-11 | Won |
| 1038 | 1017 | 53% | 2015-10-20 | Won |
| 1054 | 1078 | 47% | 2014-12-12 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1132 | 41% | 2014-11-07 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1192 | 38% | 2014-11-06 | Lost |
| 1130 | 980 | 70% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1130 | 980 | 70% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1256 | 24% | 2014-09-02 | Won |
| 1058 | 951 | 65% | 2014-07-05 | Won |
| 1066 | 1101 | 45% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 861 | 1071 | 23% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 891 | 1071 | 26% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1069 | 55% | 2013-02-18 | Won |
| 985 | 951 | 55% | 2012-12-30 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1251 | 39% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1012 | 1023 | 48% | 2011-07-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1027 | 52% | 2010-10-10 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1156 | 43% | 2010-08-30 | Won |
| 1046 | 1019 | 54% | 2010-06-26 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1105 | 51% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1108 | 37% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 988 | 950 | 55% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1072 | 46% | 2010-03-06 | Lost |
| 1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-03-04 | Won |
| 980 | 1105 | 33% | 2010-01-25 | Lost |
| 980 | 1117 | 31% | 2009-11-13 | Won |
| 919 | 1138 | 22% | 2009-06-26 | Lost |
| 980 | 988 | 49% | 2009-02-09 | Lost |
| 944 | 1228 | 16% | 2009-01-30 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2009-01-11 | Lost |
| 980 | 918 | 59% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1117 | 37% | 2007-04-11 | Lost |
| 933 | 1026 | 37% | 2006-10-15 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1423 | 27% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1101 | 44% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1046 | 52% | 2006-02-13 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1081 | 65% | 2001-09-29 | Won |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2001-04-27 | Won |
| 1041 | 1015 | 54% | 2000-12-16 | Won |
| 1048 | 1105 | 42% | 2000-03-21 | Won |
| 976 | 948 | 54% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 1024 | 1125 | 36% | 1998-05-23 | Won |
| 1065 | 1263 | 24% | 1998-04-24 | Won |
| 1263 | 916 | 88% | 1998-04-11 | Won |
| 1012 | 832 | 74% | 1997-01-05 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1102 | 60% | 1995-08-10 | Lost |
| 919 | 1198 | 17% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1044.2 vs 1041.3 has a 50.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).