Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63
Attacker wins (German): 26
Defender wins (French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 951 | 951 | 50% | 2021-12-15 | Lost |
| 1141 | 967 | 73% | 2021-06-16 | Won |
| 980 | 967 | 52% | 2021-01-23 | Won |
| 1012 | 1003 | 51% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 974 | 946 | 54% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 918 | 935 | 48% | 2020-10-18 | Won |
| 998 | 1012 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 967 | 946 | 53% | 2020-04-10 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1022 | 50% | 2020-03-10 | Won |
| 1075 | 1063 | 52% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 961 | 907 | 58% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1198 | 954 | 80% | 2020-02-13 | Won |
| 1065 | 1018 | 57% | 2019-09-08 | Won |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2017-12-15 | Won |
| 875 | 846 | 54% | 2017-11-17 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1254 | 24% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2016-11-29 | Lost |
| 951 | 1029 | 39% | 2016-05-01 | Lost |
| 1115 | 967 | 70% | 2015-11-11 | Won |
| 1035 | 1017 | 53% | 2015-10-20 | Won |
| 1054 | 1036 | 53% | 2014-12-12 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1133 | 44% | 2014-11-07 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1176 | 36% | 2014-11-06 | Lost |
| 1131 | 967 | 72% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1131 | 967 | 72% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1198 | 1257 | 42% | 2014-09-02 | Won |
| 1070 | 951 | 66% | 2014-07-05 | Won |
| 1071 | 1100 | 46% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 861 | 1067 | 23% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 890 | 1067 | 27% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1070 | 54% | 2013-02-18 | Won |
| 967 | 970 | 50% | 2012-12-30 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1251 | 36% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1012 | 1023 | 48% | 2011-07-08 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1027 | 52% | 2010-10-10 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1156 | 39% | 2010-08-30 | Won |
| 1046 | 1020 | 54% | 2010-06-26 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1075 | 56% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1024 | 49% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 988 | 907 | 61% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1091 | 44% | 2010-03-06 | Lost |
| 1020 | 851 | 73% | 2010-03-04 | Won |
| 1041 | 1075 | 45% | 2010-01-25 | Lost |
| 967 | 1065 | 36% | 2009-11-13 | Won |
| 919 | 1139 | 22% | 2009-06-26 | Lost |
| 967 | 990 | 47% | 2009-02-09 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1228 | 28% | 2009-01-30 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2009-01-11 | Lost |
| 967 | 920 | 57% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1117 | 37% | 2007-04-11 | Lost |
| 947 | 1026 | 39% | 2006-10-15 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1416 | 38% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1100 | 44% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1046 | 52% | 2006-02-13 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1065 | 43% | 2001-09-29 | Won |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2001-04-27 | Won |
| 1123 | 1015 | 65% | 2000-12-16 | Won |
| 1048 | 1075 | 46% | 2000-03-21 | Won |
| 976 | 948 | 54% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 1051 | 1124 | 40% | 1998-05-23 | Won |
| 1028 | 832 | 76% | 1997-01-05 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1110 | 52% | 1995-08-10 | Lost |
| 919 | 1189 | 17% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (26 wins) average ELOs: 1035.2 vs 1034.1 has a 50.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).