Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (French): 37
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 928 | 896 | 55% | 2021-12-15 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1032 | 66% | 2021-06-16 | Won |
| 1007 | 1032 | 46% | 2021-01-23 | Won |
| 996 | 1004 | 49% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 951 | 1009 | 42% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 937 | 952 | 48% | 2020-10-18 | Won |
| 998 | 1012 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 1032 | 943 | 63% | 2020-04-10 | Lost |
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2020-03-10 | Won |
| 947 | 945 | 50% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1010 | 945 | 59% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1219 | 910 | 86% | 2020-02-13 | Won |
| 1058 | 1016 | 56% | 2019-09-08 | Won |
| 973 | 1061 | 38% | 2017-12-15 | Won |
| 880 | 848 | 55% | 2017-11-17 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1228 | 28% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 914 | 896 | 53% | 2016-11-29 | Lost |
| 896 | 1042 | 30% | 2016-05-01 | Lost |
| 1079 | 919 | 72% | 2015-11-11 | Won |
| 1038 | 1017 | 53% | 2015-10-20 | Won |
| 1054 | 1025 | 54% | 2014-12-12 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1132 | 43% | 2014-11-07 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1175 | 28% | 2014-11-06 | Lost |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1209 | 51% | 2014-09-02 | Won |
| 1121 | 951 | 73% | 2014-07-05 | Won |
| 1081 | 1098 | 48% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 889 | 1066 | 27% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 861 | 1066 | 24% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1095 | 50% | 2013-02-18 | Won |
| 919 | 1027 | 35% | 2012-12-30 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1251 | 35% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1012 | 1023 | 48% | 2011-07-08 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1027 | 51% | 2010-10-10 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1155 | 30% | 2010-08-30 | Won |
| 990 | 1018 | 46% | 2010-06-26 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1023 | 49% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 1113 | 1010 | 64% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 976 | 945 | 54% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1086 | 44% | 2010-03-06 | Lost |
| 1018 | 852 | 72% | 2010-03-04 | Won |
| 1115 | 1010 | 65% | 2010-01-25 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1058 | 46% | 2009-11-13 | Won |
| 919 | 1138 | 22% | 2009-06-26 | Lost |
| 1032 | 992 | 56% | 2009-02-09 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1228 | 28% | 2009-01-30 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2009-01-11 | Lost |
| 1032 | 920 | 66% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1099 | 40% | 2007-04-11 | Lost |
| 986 | 1026 | 44% | 2006-10-15 | Lost |
| 1316 | 1407 | 37% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1098 | 44% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1046 | 52% | 2006-02-13 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1026 | 48% | 2001-09-29 | Won |
| 1082 | 1013 | 60% | 2000-12-16 | Won |
| 1048 | 1010 | 55% | 2000-03-21 | Won |
| 976 | 948 | 54% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 1061 | 1106 | 44% | 1998-05-23 | Won |
| 1014 | 832 | 74% | 1997-01-05 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1106 | 54% | 1995-08-10 | Lost |
| 919 | 1223 | 15% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1035.9 vs 1036.4 has a 49.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).