Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (69 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 46
Defender wins (French): 53
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1072 | 1072 | 50% | 2026-04-01 | Won |
| 1049 | 1032 | 52% | 2025-11-10 | Won |
| 1075 | 1058 | 52% | 2025-11-05 | Lost |
| 988 | 988 | 50% | 2021-12-15 | Lost |
| 1165 | 979 | 74% | 2021-06-16 | Won |
| 967 | 979 | 48% | 2021-01-23 | Won |
| 1028 | 974 | 58% | 2020-11-13 | Lost |
| 974 | 947 | 54% | 2020-11-10 | Lost |
| 913 | 887 | 54% | 2020-10-18 | Won |
| 999 | 1013 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 979 | 948 | 54% | 2020-04-10 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1007 | 54% | 2020-03-10 | Won |
| 1085 | 1061 | 53% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 961 | 996 | 45% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1064 | 992 | 60% | 2020-02-13 | Won |
| 1134 | 1019 | 66% | 2019-09-08 | Won |
| 1147 | 934 | 77% | 2017-12-15 | Won |
| 875 | 846 | 54% | 2017-11-17 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1116 | 70% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1276 | 16% | 2017-08-12 | Lost |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2016-11-29 | Lost |
| 988 | 1030 | 44% | 2016-05-01 | Lost |
| 1114 | 983 | 68% | 2015-11-11 | Won |
| 1038 | 1017 | 53% | 2015-10-20 | Won |
| 1054 | 1052 | 50% | 2014-12-12 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1133 | 41% | 2014-11-07 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1192 | 35% | 2014-11-06 | Lost |
| 1131 | 979 | 71% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1131 | 979 | 71% | 2014-10-20 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1206 | 31% | 2014-09-02 | Won |
| 1040 | 951 | 63% | 2014-07-05 | Won |
| 1066 | 1101 | 45% | 2013-10-12 | Won |
| 862 | 1071 | 23% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 890 | 1071 | 26% | 2013-06-09 | Lost |
| 1108 | 1070 | 55% | 2013-02-18 | Won |
| 983 | 953 | 54% | 2012-12-30 | Lost |
| 1190 | 1251 | 41% | 2012-10-03 | Won |
| 1013 | 1023 | 49% | 2011-07-08 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2010-10-10 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1157 | 40% | 2010-08-30 | Won |
| 1043 | 1019 | 53% | 2010-06-26 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1085 | 54% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1108 | 37% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 987 | 996 | 49% | 2010-03-13 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1072 | 46% | 2010-03-06 | Lost |
| 1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-03-04 | Won |
| 968 | 1085 | 34% | 2010-01-25 | Lost |
| 979 | 1134 | 29% | 2009-11-13 | Won |
| 920 | 1138 | 22% | 2009-06-26 | Lost |
| 979 | 989 | 49% | 2009-02-09 | Lost |
| 943 | 1233 | 16% | 2009-01-30 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2009-01-11 | Lost |
| 979 | 919 | 59% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1117 | 38% | 2007-04-11 | Lost |
| 942 | 1055 | 34% | 2006-10-15 | Lost |
| 1232 | 1430 | 24% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1101 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1046 | 52% | 2006-02-13 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1080 | 65% | 2001-09-29 | Won |
| 1140 | 727 | 92% | 2001-04-27 | Won |
| 1023 | 1015 | 51% | 2000-12-16 | Won |
| 1048 | 1085 | 45% | 2000-03-21 | Won |
| 974 | 948 | 54% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 983 | 1129 | 30% | 1998-05-23 | Won |
| 1065 | 1264 | 24% | 1998-04-24 | Won |
| 1264 | 916 | 88% | 1998-04-11 | Won |
| 1019 | 835 | 74% | 1997-01-05 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1102 | 58% | 1995-08-10 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1175 | 43% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (30 wins) average ELOs: 1043.9 vs 1042.1 has a 50.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).