Le Hérisson
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 103 (73 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 49
Defender wins (French): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-04-01 | Won | |
| 1049 | 1033 | 52% | 2025-11-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2025-11-05 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2021-12-15 | Lost | |
| 1208 | 1000 | 77% | 2021-06-16 | Won | |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-01-23 | Won | |
| 1029 | 1016 | 52% | 2020-11-13 | Lost | |
| 974 | 932 | 56% | 2020-11-10 | Lost | |
| 967 | 904 | 59% | 2020-10-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2020-04-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2020-04-10 | Lost | |
| 1085 | 966 | 66% | 2020-03-10 | Won | |
| 1183 | 1000 | 74% | 2020-03-07 | Won | |
| 961 | 953 | 51% | 2020-03-07 | Lost | |
| 1134 | 986 | 70% | 2020-02-13 | Won | |
| 1147 | 1017 | 68% | 2019-09-08 | Won | |
| 1001 | 1058 | 42% | 2017-12-15 | Won | |
| 847 | 1000 | 29% | 2017-11-17 | Lost | |
| 1242 | 1116 | 67% | 2017-11-11 | Lost | |
| 1054 | 1275 | 22% | 2017-08-12 | Lost | |
| 919 | 898 | 53% | 2016-11-29 | Lost | |
| 981 | 1030 | 43% | 2016-05-01 | Lost | |
| 1134 | 962 | 73% | 2015-11-11 | Won | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2015-10-20 | Won | |
| 1055 | 1035 | 53% | 2014-12-12 | Lost | |
| 1064 | 1134 | 40% | 2014-11-07 | Lost | |
| 1183 | 1163 | 53% | 2014-11-06 | Lost | |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2014-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2014-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1134 | 1283 | 30% | 2014-09-02 | Won | |
| 1062 | 951 | 65% | 2014-07-05 | Won | |
| 1067 | 1101 | 45% | 2013-10-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2013-09-09 | Lost | |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-08-26 | Won | |
| 862 | 1071 | 23% | 2013-06-09 | Lost | |
| 891 | 1071 | 26% | 2013-06-09 | Lost | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2013-02-18 | Won | |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2012-12-30 | Lost | |
| 1209 | 1000 | 77% | 2012-10-03 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1023 | 49% | 2011-07-08 | Lost | |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2010-10-10 | Lost | |
| 1183 | 1000 | 74% | 2010-08-30 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2010-06-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 2010-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2010-03-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 953 | 57% | 2010-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2010-03-06 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-03-04 | Won | |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2010-01-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2009-11-13 | Won | |
| 917 | 1000 | 38% | 2009-06-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2009-02-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2009-01-30 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2009-01-11 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 915 | 62% | 2008-09-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2007-04-11 | Lost | |
| 1127 | 1055 | 60% | 2006-10-15 | Lost | |
| 1219 | 1435 | 22% | 2006-09-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2006-04-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2006-02-13 | Lost | |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2004-07-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2001-09-29 | Won | |
| 1141 | 790 | 88% | 2001-04-27 | Won | |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2000-12-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 2000-03-21 | Won | |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2000-02-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 1998-11-14 | Won | |
| 1054 | 1145 | 37% | 1998-05-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 1998-04-24 | Won | |
| 1242 | 915 | 87% | 1998-04-11 | Won | |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 1997-01-05 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 1102 | 59% | 1995-08-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 1993-10-15 | Won |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1042.5 vs 1042 has a 50.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).