High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 155 (24 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 64
Defender wins (German): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 950 | 1011 | 41% | 2024-05-13 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1125 | 44% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
| 997 | 1046 | 43% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 939 | 962 | 47% | 2014-05-13 | Won |
| 1087 | 1098 | 48% | 2014-02-01 | Won |
| 976 | 984 | 49% | 2012-07-18 | Lost |
| 927 | 962 | 45% | 2010-09-18 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1068 | 60% | 2008-09-20 | Lost |
| 977 | 1101 | 33% | 2008-04-04 | Lost |
| 971 | 980 | 49% | 2005-11-29 | Won |
| 1078 | 1068 | 51% | 2005-11-27 | Won |
| 1041 | 953 | 62% | 2005-09-25 | Won |
| 1046 | 1101 | 42% | 2005-04-30 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1101 | 66% | 2003-04-25 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1101 | 44% | 2003-04-05 | Won |
| 934 | 982 | 43% | 2002-04-20 | Won |
| 1057 | 1068 | 48% | 2001-12-07 | Won |
| 1095 | 1092 | 50% | 2001-09-16 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1197 | 48% | 2001-05-05 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1249 | 55% | 2001-01-21 | Lost |
| 1101 | 992 | 65% | 2000-12-02 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1189 | 43% | 2000-04-20 | Won |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2000-04-11 | Won |
| 1054 | 1068 | 48% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1061.3 vs 1051.3 has a 51.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).