High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 155 (24 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 64
Defender wins (German): 91
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1024 | 44% | 2024-05-13 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1123 | 36% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
| 967 | 1077 | 35% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 939 | 909 | 54% | 2014-05-13 | Won |
| 1106 | 1141 | 45% | 2014-02-01 | Won |
| 1026 | 984 | 56% | 2012-07-18 | Lost |
| 934 | 959 | 46% | 2010-09-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1075 | 59% | 2008-09-20 | Lost |
| 978 | 1101 | 33% | 2008-04-04 | Lost |
| 1024 | 980 | 56% | 2005-11-29 | Won |
| 1076 | 1075 | 50% | 2005-11-27 | Won |
| 1036 | 953 | 62% | 2005-09-25 | Won |
| 1049 | 1101 | 43% | 2005-04-30 | Lost |
| 1214 | 1101 | 66% | 2003-04-25 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1101 | 42% | 2003-04-05 | Won |
| 934 | 982 | 43% | 2002-04-20 | Won |
| 1057 | 1060 | 50% | 2001-12-07 | Won |
| 967 | 1092 | 33% | 2001-09-16 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1197 | 45% | 2001-05-05 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1263 | 53% | 2001-01-21 | Lost |
| 1101 | 992 | 65% | 2000-12-02 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1190 | 43% | 2000-04-20 | Won |
| 1141 | 753 | 90% | 2000-04-11 | Won |
| 1018 | 1030 | 48% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1055.8 vs 1052.6 has a 50.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).