High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 152 (21 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 63
Defender wins (German): 89
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1209 | 1048 | 72% | 2024-05-13 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1126 | 49% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 939 | 956 | 48% | 2014-05-13 | Won |
| 1098 | 1060 | 55% | 2014-02-01 | Won |
| 1014 | 985 | 54% | 2012-07-18 | Lost |
| 928 | 1008 | 39% | 2010-09-18 | Lost |
| 977 | 1100 | 33% | 2008-04-04 | Lost |
| 919 | 979 | 41% | 2005-11-29 | Won |
| 1041 | 971 | 60% | 2005-09-25 | Won |
| 1047 | 1100 | 42% | 2005-04-30 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1100 | 66% | 2003-04-25 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1100 | 44% | 2003-04-05 | Won |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2002-04-20 | Won |
| 1057 | 1050 | 51% | 2001-12-07 | Won |
| 1064 | 1092 | 46% | 2001-09-16 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1195 | 40% | 2001-05-05 | Lost |
| 1100 | 890 | 77% | 2000-12-02 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1187 | 45% | 2000-04-20 | Won |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2000-04-11 | Won |
| 1028 | 790 | 80% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1057.7 vs 1021.3 has a 55.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).