The Lawless Roads
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (29 on the archive and 97 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 66
Defender wins (German): 60
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2026-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1032 | 45% | 2026-02-23 | | Won |
| 1140 | 1000 | 69% | 2025-04-06 | | Won |
| 1070 | 1018 | 57% | 2025-02-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2023-06-27 | | Lost |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-06-26 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2023-06-11 | | Won |
| 996 | 1035 | 44% | 2023-06-07 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2023-05-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 841 | 71% | 2023-05-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2022-12-20 | | Won |
| 1210 | 1156 | 58% | 2020-06-09 | | Won |
| 947 | 1000 | 42% | 2020-02-08 | | Won |
| 992 | 995 | 50% | 2019-07-01 | | Won |
| 1218 | 983 | 79% | 2017-11-01 | | Won |
| 1063 | 1000 | 59% | 2014-06-01 | | Won |
| 960 | 1063 | 36% | 2014-05-29 | | Lost |
| 1240 | 1021 | 78% | 2013-12-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2013-11-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2011-06-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2010-01-13 | | Won |
| 1167 | 981 | 74% | 2010-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2009-11-08 | | Won |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-07-29 | | Lost |
| 1240 | 1000 | 80% | 2006-03-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2006-01-01 | | Won |
| 976 | 1029 | 42% | 2005-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2004-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2003-01-26 | | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1041.2 vs 1022.5 has a 52.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).