Abandon Ship!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (30 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (American): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 952 | 952 | 50% | 2024-12-06 | Lost |
| 919 | 1003 | 38% | 2023-07-18 | Lost |
| 933 | 940 | 49% | 2023-03-04 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1068 | 48% | 2023-03-04 | Won |
| 966 | 1068 | 36% | 2023-02-06 | Lost |
| 1225 | 940 | 84% | 2022-12-29 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1173 | 50% | 2022-09-07 | Lost |
| 849 | 1032 | 26% | 2022-08-24 | Won |
| 1110 | 1180 | 40% | 2022-02-26 | Won |
| 1080 | 913 | 72% | 2021-08-21 | Won |
| 1043 | 949 | 63% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1009 | 53% | 2020-08-04 | Won |
| 1140 | 1042 | 64% | 2019-03-09 | Won |
| 1135 | 1071 | 59% | 2017-04-27 | Won |
| 969 | 898 | 60% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 901 | 1178 | 17% | 2017-03-31 | Won |
| 901 | 1178 | 17% | 2017-01-06 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2015-12-06 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1179 | 49% | 2015-06-26 | Won |
| 1047 | 1001 | 57% | 2015-04-17 | Lost |
| 1121 | 965 | 71% | 2014-11-27 | Won |
| 1121 | 1046 | 61% | 2014-11-14 | Tied |
| 1141 | 753 | 90% | 2014-06-11 | Won |
| 1007 | 1060 | 42% | 2013-05-01 | Lost |
| 966 | 1042 | 39% | 2011-07-09 | Lost |
| 1430 | 1064 | 89% | 2011-06-04 | Won |
| 1430 | 1185 | 80% | 2011-03-20 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1039 | 49% | 2010-11-01 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1100 | 72% | 1999-05-01 | Won |
| 969 | 943 | 54% | 1998-10-09 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1072.3 vs 1035.3 has a 55.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).