Abandon Ship!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (31 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (American): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1089 | 902 | 75% | 2026-06-20 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-12-06 | | Lost |
| 919 | 967 | 43% | 2023-07-18 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2023-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1083 | 1040 | 56% | 2023-03-04 | | Won |
| 932 | 1040 | 35% | 2023-02-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2022-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2022-09-07 | | Lost |
| 818 | 1003 | 26% | 2022-08-24 | | Won |
| 1157 | 1000 | 71% | 2022-02-26 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-08-21 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2021-07-17 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1009 | 45% | 2020-08-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2019-03-09 | | Won |
| 1135 | 1071 | 59% | 2017-04-27 | | Won |
| 969 | 898 | 60% | 2017-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1026 | 51% | 2017-03-31 | | Won |
| 1033 | 1026 | 51% | 2017-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2015-12-06 | | Lost |
| 1149 | 1000 | 70% | 2015-06-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2015-04-17 | | Lost |
| 1121 | 964 | 71% | 2014-11-27 | | Won |
| 1121 | 1000 | 67% | 2014-11-14 | | Tied |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 2014-06-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2013-05-01 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1084 | 34% | 2011-07-09 | | Lost |
| 1435 | 1040 | 91% | 2011-06-04 | | Won |
| 1435 | 1171 | 82% | 2011-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1032 | 1000 | 55% | 2010-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 1999-05-01 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1000 | 51% | 1998-10-09 | | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1063.9 vs 1007 has a 58.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).