Holding the Hotton Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 166 (31 on the archive and 135 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 79
Defender wins (American): 87
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-04-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2022-04-08 | | Won |
| 1137 | 1272 | 31% | 2022-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 839 | 83% | 2020-06-14 | | Won |
| 1132 | 954 | 74% | 2020-05-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2019-06-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2017-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 918 | 76% | 2015-03-29 | | Lost |
| 920 | 985 | 41% | 2015-01-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2014-12-07 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 983 | 79% | 2013-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2010-11-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2010-10-09 | | Won |
| 996 | 1044 | 43% | 2010-08-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-11-19 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2008-12-26 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1183 | 28% | 2008-12-08 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1233 | 36% | 2008-08-15 | | Lost |
| 1211 | 1000 | 77% | 2006-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2006-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2005-02-10 | | Won |
| 1077 | 1074 | 50% | 2005-01-23 | | Won |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2004-07-22 | | Won |
| 1022 | 1211 | 25% | 2004-02-24 | | Won |
| 832 | 1133 | 15% | 2003-12-24 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2001-06-22 | | Lost |
| 790 | 1141 | 12% | 1999-07-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 1998-09-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1086 | 40% | | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1086 | 40% | | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1033.1 vs 1058.1 has a 46.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).