The Badger's Breath
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 153 (32 on the archive and 121 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 76
Defender wins (Canadian): 77
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 887 | 1175 | 16% | 2026-09-12 | | Lost |
| 954 | 1145 | 25% | 2026-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1202 | 24% | 2026-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2026-09-11 | | Won |
| 1231 | 1000 | 79% | 2026-08-26 | | Won |
| 1050 | 1050 | 50% | 2026-08-25 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1035 | 41% | 2024-04-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2024-03-25 | | Won |
| 989 | 1167 | 26% | 2024-01-26 | | Won |
| 948 | 963 | 48% | 2024-01-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2022-06-03 | | Won |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-06-03 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2021-11-20 | | Won |
| 1284 | 728 | 96% | 2020-06-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 907 | 63% | 2012-04-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2011-06-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2011-06-03 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 945 | 76% | 2010-09-24 | | Won |
| 1136 | 977 | 71% | 2010-08-01 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1183 | 28% | 2009-02-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1231 | 21% | 2008-08-01 | | Won |
| 1231 | 1000 | 79% | 2008-03-15 | | Won |
| 969 | 1035 | 41% | 2007-06-26 | | Lost |
| 960 | 954 | 51% | 2007-03-09 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2007-01-27 | | Won |
| 1167 | 982 | 74% | 2007-01-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2007-01-27 | | Won |
| 1269 | 1035 | 79% | 2007-01-23 | | Won |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2006-06-23 | | Won |
| 1209 | 1004 | 76% | 2005-12-04 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2005-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1175 | 1052 | 67% | 2005-10-27 | | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1049.4 vs 1052.2 has a 49.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).