A Winter Melee
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 45 (19 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 27
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1145 | 1159 | 48% | 2023-04-23 | Lost |
| 1135 | 969 | 72% | 2022-04-24 | Won |
| 1089 | 1089 | 50% | 2020-06-20 | Won |
| 967 | 1171 | 24% | 2018-07-20 | Lost |
| 1037 | 951 | 62% | 2018-07-20 | Won |
| 1075 | 956 | 66% | 2018-04-28 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-09-10 | Lost |
| 1075 | 999 | 61% | 2016-06-25 | Won |
| 1232 | 959 | 83% | 2016-03-17 | Won |
| 891 | 913 | 47% | 2015-11-30 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2014-11-29 | Won |
| 956 | 1075 | 34% | 2013-06-20 | Won |
| 956 | 984 | 46% | 2013-04-17 | Lost |
| 1288 | 1170 | 66% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1020 | 53% | 2012-12-07 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1041 | 64% | 2011-09-10 | Lost |
| 1075 | 959 | 66% | 2009-08-04 | Won |
| 1068 | 1235 | 28% | 2009-04-03 | Won |
| 984 | 956 | 54% | 1990-08-22 | Tied |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1071.4 vs 1040.8 has a 54.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).