A Winter Melee
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 45 (19 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian / Partisan): 19
Defender wins (German): 25
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1115 | 1115 | 50% | 2023-04-23 | Lost |
| 1124 | 968 | 71% | 2022-04-24 | Won |
| 1088 | 1074 | 52% | 2020-06-20 | Won |
| 909 | 1164 | 19% | 2018-07-20 | Lost |
| 1032 | 951 | 61% | 2018-07-20 | Won |
| 967 | 986 | 47% | 2018-04-28 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2017-09-10 | Lost |
| 967 | 999 | 45% | 2016-06-25 | Won |
| 1192 | 960 | 79% | 2016-03-17 | Won |
| 998 | 912 | 62% | 2015-11-30 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2014-11-29 | Won |
| 986 | 967 | 53% | 2013-06-20 | Won |
| 986 | 985 | 50% | 2013-04-17 | Lost |
| 1287 | 1289 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1019 | 53% | 2012-12-07 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1041 | 64% | 2011-09-10 | Lost |
| 967 | 960 | 51% | 2009-08-04 | Won |
| 994 | 1157 | 28% | 2009-04-03 | Won |
| 985 | 986 | 50% | 1990-08-22 | Tied |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1051.5 vs 1036.9 has a 52.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).