The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (28 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 39
Defender wins (Chinese): 56
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
949 | 949 | 50% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
949 | 949 | 50% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
949 | 949 | 50% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
924 | 983 | 42% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
1128 | 1109 | 53% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
1011 | 994 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
1057 | 1008 | 57% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
734 | 881 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
1198 | 856 | 88% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
1058 | 1083 | 46% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
1126 | 987 | 69% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
881 | 880 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
881 | 983 | 36% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
1225 | 849 | 90% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
1327 | 1197 | 68% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
917 | 1017 | 36% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
1026 | 1175 | 30% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
983 | 1014 | 46% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
959 | 916 | 56% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
1138 | 1008 | 68% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
1115 | 1009 | 65% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
911 | 987 | 39% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
984 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
1145 | 1115 | 54% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
987 | 1066 | 39% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1021.6 vs 1005.1 has a 52.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).