The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (Japanese): 15
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1107 | 868 | 80% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 946 | 995 | 43% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1102 | 50% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1110 | 51% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1074 | 46% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 729 | 879 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1128 | 858 | 83% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1149 | 1036 | 66% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1126 | 968 | 71% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 879 | 880 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 879 | 995 | 34% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1226 | 806 | 92% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1269 | 1146 | 67% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1008 | 1220 | 23% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1118 | 51% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 995 | 1018 | 47% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 998 | 920 | 61% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1060 | 57% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1009 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 952 | 968 | 48% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1144 | 1096 | 57% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 928 | 1160 | 21% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1107 | 51% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1032.7 vs 1016.6 has a 52.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).