The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (Japanese): 15
Defender wins (Chinese): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 865 | 81% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1053 | 941 | 66% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 954 | 865 | 63% | 2022-09-17 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1070 | 51% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1092 | 53% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2021-01-31 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1051 | 50% | 2020-04-20 | Lost |
| 729 | 877 | 30% | 2018-01-15 | Won |
| 1157 | 853 | 85% | 2017-11-03 | Won |
| 1159 | 1024 | 69% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1009 | 66% | 2017-03-18 | Lost |
| 877 | 877 | 50% | 2016-10-26 | Won |
| 877 | 865 | 52% | 2016-10-11 | Lost |
| 1223 | 830 | 91% | 2016-04-25 | Won |
| 1310 | 1158 | 71% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2015-11-28 | Won |
| 1013 | 1203 | 25% | 2014-12-28 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1079 | 51% | 2014-10-09 | Won |
| 865 | 1018 | 29% | 2014-07-09 | Lost |
| 966 | 917 | 57% | 2014-04-02 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1023 | 61% | 2014-01-28 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1009 | 62% | 2013-11-23 | Won |
| 960 | 1009 | 43% | 2013-06-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-05-15 | Won |
| 1144 | 1093 | 57% | 2013-04-23 | Won |
| 936 | 1147 | 23% | 2013-03-25 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1110 | 50% | 2013-01-11 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1030.1 vs 1005.5 has a 53.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).