Semper Paratus
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (21 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 36
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 920 | 1075 | 29% | 2025-11-02 | Won |
| 1070 | 1042 | 54% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 805 | 868 | 41% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 993 | 963 | 54% | 2022-11-12 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1063 | 45% | 2022-07-16 | Won |
| 1015 | 1037 | 47% | 2022-07-14 | Won |
| 1070 | 998 | 60% | 2021-06-20 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1176 | 48% | 2020-12-20 | Lost |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 973 | 924 | 57% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 939 | 971 | 45% | 2017-01-04 | Won |
| 1271 | 1007 | 82% | 2016-01-18 | Won |
| 1051 | 916 | 69% | 2013-11-22 | Won |
| 974 | 805 | 73% | 2013-11-16 | Lost |
| 992 | 1107 | 34% | 2013-08-09 | Won |
| 1055 | 1028 | 54% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1028 | 1055 | 46% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1026 | 1271 | 20% | 2013-03-22 | Won |
| 1109 | 805 | 85% | 2013-03-07 | Won |
| 875 | 804 | 60% | 2013-02-04 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1020.6 vs 999 has a 53.11% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).