Milling About
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 154 (49 on the archive and 105 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese/Burmese): 75
Defender wins (British): 79
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2026-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2026-05-25 | | Lost |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2026-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1205 | 24% | 2025-04-28 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 840 | 76% | 2024-11-13 | | Won |
| 734 | 1187 | 7% | 2024-08-26 | | Lost |
| 1311 | 1041 | 83% | 2023-10-20 | | Won |
| 1187 | 734 | 93% | 2023-01-06 | | Won |
| 1193 | 1000 | 75% | 2022-05-22 | | Won |
| 975 | 1000 | 46% | 2021-06-11 | | Won |
| 966 | 1126 | 28% | 2021-06-05 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 944 | 62% | 2021-02-13 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1102 | 41% | 2020-05-17 | | Lost |
| 1043 | 1132 | 37% | 2019-04-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1222 | 22% | 2018-05-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1222 | 22% | 2018-05-27 | | Lost |
| 1119 | 1063 | 58% | 2018-05-19 | | Won |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2017-08-29 | | Won |
| 965 | 1141 | 27% | 2016-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1021 | 1156 | 31% | 2016-07-31 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1108 | 53% | 2016-07-25 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1108 | 53% | 2016-07-25 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2016-05-02 | | Won |
| 980 | 845 | 69% | 2016-04-30 | | Won |
| 980 | 845 | 69% | 2016-04-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2016-04-29 | | Lost |
| 976 | 1263 | 16% | 2016-01-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1071 | 40% | 2015-10-08 | | Won |
| 1100 | 1056 | 56% | 2015-01-25 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 876 | 76% | 2015-01-25 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2015-01-25 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1102 | 40% | 2015-01-24 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2014-11-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2014-10-18 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 2014-08-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1146 | 30% | 2014-07-20 | | Lost |
| 906 | 1040 | 32% | 2014-07-16 | | Lost |
| 1033 | 1099 | 41% | 2014-07-11 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 906 | 68% | 2014-07-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1063 | 41% | 2014-05-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2014-05-25 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2014-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2014-05-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2014-05-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2014-04-24 | | Won |
| 957 | 1060 | 36% | 2014-04-01 | | Lost |
| 913 | 966 | 42% | 2014-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1146 | 30% | 2014-02-18 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1162 | 74% | 2014-01-20 | | Lost |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1036 vs 1045.6 has a 48.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).