Start Fall Gelb
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 103 (23 on the archive and 81 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 42
Defender wins (Belgian): 61
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Belgian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1317 | 1160 | 71% | 2026-01-25 | D | Won |
| 1061 | 950 | 65% | 2025-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2025-11-01 | | Lost |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2025-09-22 | | Lost |
| 1092 | 1035 | 58% | 2025-03-01 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-11-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2024-11-07 | | Won |
| 962 | 1134 | 27% | 2024-05-17 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 996 | 56% | 2022-10-17 | | Lost |
| 996 | 1037 | 44% | 2022-10-10 | | Won |
| 780 | 976 | 24% | 2021-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2021-02-19 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1034 | 37% | 2020-02-15 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1098 | 41% | 2019-08-10 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1127 | 63% | 2016-11-24 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1125 | 63% | 2016-11-23 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2016-09-03 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2016-02-28 | | Won |
| 926 | 1028 | 36% | 2015-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1099 | 1000 | 64% | 2015-10-30 | | Lost |
| 913 | 1037 | 33% | 2015-06-06 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2015-04-25 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 944 | 83% | 2015-04-01 | | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1036.5 vs 1027.6 has a 51.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).