The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (21 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 34
Defender wins (Polish): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1083 | 1083 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 1054 | 1189 | 31% | 2024-06-05 | Won |
| 864 | 998 | 32% | 2021-02-28 | Won |
| 1036 | 1118 | 38% | 2020-09-18 | Lost |
| 964 | 1268 | 15% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1025 | 64% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1025 | 64% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1158 | 764 | 91% | 2019-01-13 | Won |
| 1074 | 1181 | 35% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1096 | 42% | 2018-09-27 | Won |
| 1219 | 889 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | Won |
| 1046 | 1037 | 51% | 2017-12-28 | Won |
| 878 | 764 | 66% | 2017-07-09 | Lost |
| 1329 | 986 | 88% | 2017-02-21 | Won |
| 1143 | 764 | 90% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 932 | 806 | 67% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1133 | 45% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1098 | 1133 | 45% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 1143 | 764 | 90% | 2016-06-05 | Won |
| 1143 | 1098 | 56% | 2016-06-04 | Won |
| 764 | 1143 | 10% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1062.9 vs 1012.6 has a 57.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).