The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (21 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 18
Defender wins (Polish): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1086 | 1086 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 1051 | 1201 | 30% | 2024-06-05 | Won |
| 864 | 879 | 48% | 2021-02-28 | Won |
| 1045 | 1139 | 37% | 2020-09-18 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1243 | 24% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1139 | 972 | 72% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1139 | 972 | 72% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1248 | 991 | 81% | 2019-01-13 | Won |
| 1079 | 1102 | 47% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1108 | 40% | 2018-09-27 | Won |
| 1217 | 892 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | Won |
| 1052 | 1038 | 52% | 2017-12-28 | Won |
| 878 | 991 | 34% | 2017-07-09 | Lost |
| 1252 | 985 | 82% | 2017-02-21 | Won |
| 1144 | 991 | 71% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 959 | 786 | 73% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1132 | 41% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1072 | 1132 | 41% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 1144 | 991 | 71% | 2016-06-05 | Won |
| 1144 | 1072 | 60% | 2016-06-04 | Won |
| 991 | 1144 | 29% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1079 vs 1040.3 has a 55.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).