The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (21 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 34
Defender wins (Polish): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 1064 | 1241 | 27% | 2024-06-05 | Won |
| 862 | 993 | 32% | 2021-02-28 | Won |
| 1041 | 1119 | 39% | 2020-09-18 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1266 | 19% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1157 | 998 | 71% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1157 | 998 | 71% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1189 | 748 | 93% | 2019-01-13 | Won |
| 1075 | 1199 | 33% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1094 | 42% | 2018-09-27 | Won |
| 1219 | 890 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | Won |
| 1019 | 1038 | 47% | 2017-12-28 | Won |
| 877 | 748 | 68% | 2017-07-09 | Lost |
| 1310 | 986 | 87% | 2017-02-21 | Won |
| 1132 | 748 | 90% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 897 | 806 | 63% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1132 | 43% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1086 | 1132 | 43% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 1132 | 748 | 90% | 2016-06-05 | Won |
| 1132 | 1086 | 57% | 2016-06-04 | Won |
| 748 | 1132 | 10% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1063.3 vs 1009.1 has a 57.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).