The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (22 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 19
Defender wins (Polish): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1040 | 1040 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 1051 | 1178 | 32% | 2024-06-05 | Won |
| 863 | 884 | 47% | 2021-02-28 | Won |
| 1018 | 1135 | 34% | 2020-09-18 | Lost |
| 943 | 1220 | 17% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1123 | 968 | 71% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1123 | 968 | 71% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1174 | 975 | 76% | 2019-01-13 | Won |
| 1080 | 1064 | 52% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1108 | 40% | 2018-09-27 | Won |
| 1218 | 893 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | Won |
| 975 | 1038 | 41% | 2017-12-28 | Won |
| 879 | 975 | 37% | 2017-07-09 | Lost |
| 1234 | 986 | 81% | 2017-02-21 | Won |
| 1131 | 975 | 71% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1343 | 990 | 88% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 1015 | 786 | 79% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1133 | 39% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1052 | 1133 | 39% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 1131 | 975 | 71% | 2016-06-05 | Won |
| 1131 | 1052 | 61% | 2016-06-04 | Won |
| 975 | 1131 | 29% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1072.3 vs 1027.6 has a 56.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).