Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1136 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 974 | 1347 | 10% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1056 | 49% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1208 | 29% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1220 | 50% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 967 | 1064 | 36% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 995 | 1170 | 27% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 988 | 72% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1158 | 1062 | 63% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1135 | 34% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1135 | 39% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1160 | 919 | 80% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1022 | 1131 | 35% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1027 | 50% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1234 | 1313 | 39% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1188 | 1043 | 70% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1075.5 vs 1102 has a 46.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).