Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1117 | 32% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1288 | 22% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1001 | 80% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1168 | 1140 | 54% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1276 | 48% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1063 | 60% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 999 | 1218 | 22% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 768 | 82% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1137 | 896 | 80% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1188 | 994 | 75% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1059 | 44% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1059 | 48% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1150 | 1132 | 53% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 910 | 996 | 38% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1310 | 1254 | 58% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 851 | 1046 | 25% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1085.3 vs 1081.8 has a 50.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).