Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1135 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1347 | 15% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1052 | 992 | 59% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1243 | 24% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1245 | 1218 | 54% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1064 | 44% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 995 | 1077 | 38% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 933 | 78% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1219 | 1070 | 70% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1130 | 34% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1130 | 40% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1103 | 976 | 68% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1103 | 1143 | 44% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1016 | 48% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1226 | 1313 | 38% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1187 | 1057 | 68% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1087.5 vs 1095.5 has a 48.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).