Up the Liri Valley
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 104 (31 on the archive and 73 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Free French): 56
Defender wins (German): 48
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1138 | 1084 | 58% | 2023-08-12 | Lost |
| 980 | 1016 | 45% | 2022-11-19 | Won |
| 1431 | 954 | 94% | 2022-10-30 | Won |
| 1091 | 949 | 69% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 910 | 1055 | 30% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 976 | 1190 | 23% | 2022-06-25 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1115 | 44% | 2022-06-25 | Won |
| 1190 | 910 | 83% | 2022-06-16 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1190 | 27% | 2022-05-25 | Won |
| 1012 | 1012 | 50% | 2022-03-28 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-05 | Lost |
| 1036 | 718 | 86% | 2022-02-16 | Lost |
| 718 | 1031 | 14% | 2021-02-17 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1044 | 64% | 2020-10-06 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1004 | 78% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 1049 | 1015 | 55% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1015 | 971 | 56% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 977 | 891 | 62% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1009 | 1049 | 44% | 2019-11-16 | Won |
| 1045 | 1072 | 46% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 923 | 1044 | 33% | 2018-10-04 | Won |
| 1117 | 1048 | 60% | 2018-08-25 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1121 | 38% | 2018-08-03 | Won |
| 952 | 1133 | 26% | 2018-07-28 | Won |
| 1128 | 976 | 71% | 2018-07-19 | Won |
| 1097 | 1214 | 34% | 2018-04-15 | Lost |
| 969 | 1100 | 32% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1187 | 1260 | 40% | 2018-03-18 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1016 | 66% | 2018-03-01 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1065 | 49% | 2018-01-18 | Won |
| 1310 | 1082 | 79% | 2017-12-06 | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1063.3 vs 1056.8 has a 50.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).