The Chivres Shivaree
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 13 (8 on the archive and 5 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 6
Defender wins (German): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1083 | 1083 | 50% | 2025-08-11 | Won |
| 964 | 1019 | 42% | 2024-06-06 | Lost |
| 995 | 1048 | 42% | 2018-06-27 | Lost |
| 1244 | 1226 | 53% | 2018-06-24 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1268 | 33% | 2018-06-24 | Won |
| 955 | 1098 | 31% | 2018-06-24 | Lost |
| 961 | 1181 | 22% | 2018-05-03 | Lost |
| 1181 | 961 | 78% | 2018-05-01 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1065.8 vs 1110.5 has a 43.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).