The Chivres Shivaree
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 13 (8 on the archive and 5 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 3
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1157 | 1157 | 50% | 2025-08-11 | Won |
| 988 | 940 | 57% | 2024-06-06 | Lost |
| 1015 | 951 | 59% | 2018-06-27 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1208 | 35% | 2018-06-24 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1251 | 32% | 2018-06-24 | Won |
| 956 | 1035 | 39% | 2018-06-24 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1112 | 37% | 2018-05-03 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1022 | 63% | 2018-05-01 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1058.8 vs 1084.5 has a 46.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).