First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (11 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 37
Defender wins (Japanese): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2026-06-20 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2025-08-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1045 | 44% | 2025-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-06-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-05-05 | | Lost |
| 998 | 997 | 50% | 2024-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2024-03-30 | | Tied |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2024-01-24 | | Won |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2023-09-08 | | Won |
| 1100 | 1100 | 50% | 2023-07-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2022-01-23 | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1015.2 vs 1016.4 has a 49.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).