Raff's Dilemma
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (14 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 20
Defender wins (German): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 997 | 56% | 2025-12-17 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1147 | 25% | 2025-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2025-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2025-08-06 | | Lost |
| 847 | 984 | 31% | 2025-07-17 | | Lost |
| 847 | 984 | 31% | 2025-07-10 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2025-06-05 | | Won |
| 1012 | 1009 | 50% | 2024-09-19 | | Lost |
| 967 | 1062 | 37% | 2024-06-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2024-06-02 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2024-02-20 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1076 | 40% | 2023-05-27 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2023-05-08 | | Lost |
| 1140 | 1000 | 69% | 2023-04-16 | | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1008.6 vs 1029.1 has a 47.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).