Independence Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26 (11 on the archive and 15 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Czechoslovakian): 11
Defender wins (German): 15
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 996 | 996 | 50% | 2026-05-23 | Lost |
| 996 | 1011 | 48% | 2026-05-22 | Lost |
| 1089 | 965 | 67% | 2026-05-01 | Won |
| 906 | 988 | 38% | 2026-04-30 | Won |
| 999 | 906 | 63% | 2026-03-28 | Lost |
| 985 | 971 | 52% | 2026-03-01 | Won |
| 904 | 1166 | 18% | 2026-02-28 | Lost |
| 884 | 1053 | 27% | 2026-01-14 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1186 | 50% | 2025-12-16 | Won |
| 1212 | 1186 | 54% | 2025-12-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 1022 | 52% | 2025-10-09 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1017.5 vs 1040.9 has a 46.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).