The Commissar's House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 397 (71 on the archive and 326 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 202
Defender wins (Russian): 195
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 954 | 920 | 55% | 2025-09-06 | Won |
| 1019 | 991 | 54% | 2024-08-19 | Won |
| 1019 | 991 | 54% | 2024-08-04 | Lost |
| 979 | 947 | 55% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 1062 | 1200 | 31% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2023-12-30 | Lost |
| 982 | 1209 | 21% | 2023-08-14 | Lost |
| 993 | 1010 | 48% | 2022-10-16 | Lost |
| 900 | 947 | 43% | 2022-09-28 | Won |
| 1161 | 988 | 73% | 2022-07-03 | Won |
| 1050 | 879 | 73% | 2022-03-07 | Won |
| 1228 | 1118 | 65% | 2021-10-14 | Won |
| 1228 | 1017 | 77% | 2021-10-14 | Won |
| 1005 | 940 | 59% | 2021-06-30 | Won |
| 1118 | 1274 | 29% | 2021-06-20 | Lost |
| 984 | 1174 | 25% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 939 | 909 | 54% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 900 | 1011 | 35% | 2021-03-24 | Lost |
| 1174 | 984 | 75% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2021-02-25 | Lost |
| 1057 | 909 | 70% | 2020-07-06 | Won |
| 1191 | 1292 | 36% | 2019-12-04 | Won |
| 971 | 937 | 55% | 2019-11-27 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1191 | 40% | 2019-02-08 | Lost |
| 886 | 893 | 49% | 2018-09-25 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1029 | 51% | 2018-08-03 | Lost |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2018-06-30 | Won |
| 1012 | 1031 | 47% | 2018-06-01 | Won |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2018-05-06 | Won |
| 974 | 1048 | 40% | 2018-02-01 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1025 | 54% | 2018-01-01 | Lost |
| 946 | 947 | 50% | 2017-06-12 | Won |
| 972 | 960 | 52% | 2017-05-11 | Lost |
| 893 | 1191 | 15% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 956 | 909 | 57% | 2017-01-26 | Won |
| 947 | 878 | 60% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1191 | 961 | 79% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 969 | 1069 | 36% | 2015-04-29 | Lost |
| 844 | 1191 | 12% | 2013-11-04 | Lost |
| 1099 | 968 | 68% | 2013-08-17 | Won |
| 900 | 1111 | 23% | 2013-01-27 | Won |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-20 | Won |
| 947 | 1013 | 41% | 2012-09-20 | Won |
| 930 | 1067 | 31% | 2012-07-22 | Won |
| 949 | 988 | 44% | 2011-09-20 | Won |
| 942 | 1096 | 29% | 2011-08-07 | Lost |
| 950 | 1098 | 30% | 2011-02-24 | Lost |
| 957 | 968 | 48% | 2010-12-22 | Won |
| 1100 | 871 | 79% | 2010-10-18 | Won |
| 989 | 873 | 66% | 2010-10-10 | Won |
| 1119 | 960 | 71% | 2009-10-04 | Lost |
| 1098 | 904 | 75% | 2009-10-03 | Won |
| 1060 | 947 | 66% | 2009-05-09 | Won |
| 920 | 947 | 46% | 2007-10-30 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1073 | 48% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1010 | 943 | 60% | 2006-07-08 | Lost |
| 988 | 1066 | 39% | 2004-11-22 | Won |
| 1177 | 947 | 79% | 2004-08-16 | Won |
| 928 | 928 | 50% | 2004-06-15 | Lost |
| 613 | 1100 | 6% | 2001-11-17 | Won |
| 914 | 1052 | 31% | 2001-05-21 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1075 | 50% | 1999-01-25 | Won |
| 1127 | 1040 | 62% | 1998-12-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1095 | 44% | 1998-07-22 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1041 | 51% | 1998-04-09 | Won |
| 1028 | 1049 | 47% | 1995-10-01 | Won |
| 1200 | 911 | 84% | 1994-02-03 | Lost |
| 985 | 1014 | 46% | 1991-05-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | Lost | |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | Won |
Attacking (38 wins) average ELOs: 1016.4 vs 1019.5 has a 49.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).