The Commissar's House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 399 (71 on the archive and 328 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 204
Defender wins (Russian): 195
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 977 | 919 | 58% | 2025-09-06 | Won | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2024-08-19 | Won | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2024-08-04 | Lost | |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-06-28 | Won | |
| 996 | 1159 | 28% | 2024-04-07 | Lost | |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2023-12-30 | Lost | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-08-14 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2022-10-16 | Lost | |
| 967 | 904 | 59% | 2022-09-28 | Won | |
| 1182 | 989 | 75% | 2022-07-03 | Won | |
| 1009 | 891 | 66% | 2022-03-07 | Won | |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2021-10-14 | Won | |
| 1227 | 1013 | 77% | 2021-10-14 | Won | |
| 1038 | 944 | 63% | 2021-06-30 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1258 | 18% | 2021-06-20 | Lost | |
| 984 | 1172 | 25% | 2021-06-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2021-05-06 | Lost | |
| 967 | 1015 | 43% | 2021-03-24 | Lost | |
| 1172 | 984 | 75% | 2021-03-14 | Won | |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2021-02-25 | Lost | |
| 1057 | 966 | 63% | 2020-07-06 | Won | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2019-12-04 | Won | |
| 971 | 1000 | 46% | 2019-11-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2019-02-08 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 992 | 51% | 2018-09-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2018-08-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2018-06-30 | Won | |
| 1088 | 951 | 69% | 2018-06-01 | Won | |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2018-05-21 | Lost | |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2018-05-06 | Won | |
| 974 | 1048 | 40% | 2018-02-01 | Lost | |
| 1054 | 1000 | 58% | 2018-01-01 | Lost | |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2017-06-12 | Won | |
| 1174 | 1000 | 73% | 2017-05-11 | Lost | |
| 894 | 1085 | 25% | 2017-04-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2017-01-26 | Won | |
| 1000 | 890 | 65% | 2016-10-07 | Won | |
| 1085 | 1000 | 62% | 2016-06-23 | Won | |
| 968 | 1071 | 36% | 2015-04-29 | Lost | |
| 829 | 1085 | 19% | 2013-11-04 | Lost | |
| 1099 | 964 | 69% | 2013-08-17 | Won | |
| 900 | 1000 | 36% | 2013-01-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2012-09-20 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2012-09-20 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1071 | 40% | 2012-07-22 | Won | |
| 962 | 974 | 48% | 2011-09-20 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2011-08-07 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1103 | 31% | 2011-02-24 | Lost | |
| 960 | 968 | 49% | 2010-12-22 | Won | |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2010-10-18 | Won | |
| 989 | 841 | 70% | 2010-10-10 | Won | |
| 1090 | 970 | 67% | 2009-10-04 | Lost | |
| 1044 | 905 | 69% | 2009-10-03 | Won | |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2009-05-09 | Won | |
| 915 | 1000 | 38% | 2007-10-30 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1073 | 40% | 2006-09-09 | Lost | |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2006-07-08 | Lost | |
| 974 | 1070 | 37% | 2004-11-22 | Won | |
| 1000 | 907 | 63% | 2004-06-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2001-11-17 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2001-05-21 | Lost | |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 2000-01-20 | Won | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 1999-01-25 | Won | |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 1998-12-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1096 | 37% | 1998-07-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 1998-04-09 | Won | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 1995-10-01 | Won | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 1994-02-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 959 | 56% | 1991-05-01 | Lost | |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | Lost | ||
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | Won |
Attacking (38 wins) average ELOs: 1029.6 vs 1008.8 has a 52.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).