Red Packets
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 264 (50 on the archive and 214 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 144
Defender wins (Russian): 118
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 981 | 973 | 51% | 2025-08-26 | Lost |
| 1151 | 913 | 80% | 2025-08-18 | Won |
| 1053 | 995 | 58% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 878 | 880 | 50% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1185 | 1185 | 50% | 2024-01-08 | Won |
| 1118 | 1228 | 35% | 2021-08-10 | Won |
| 1017 | 1228 | 23% | 2021-08-10 | Won |
| 1033 | 1013 | 53% | 2021-01-17 | Lost |
| 932 | 1173 | 20% | 2020-12-25 | Lost |
| 1173 | 932 | 80% | 2020-12-20 | Won |
| 954 | 1055 | 36% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
| 1165 | 1149 | 52% | 2018-02-09 | Won |
| 958 | 955 | 50% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 1023 | 1065 | 44% | 2018-01-27 | Lost |
| 893 | 1167 | 17% | 2017-06-08 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2016-12-15 | Lost |
| 1254 | 959 | 85% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 998 | 987 | 52% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1020 | 1078 | 42% | 2015-07-08 | Lost |
| 1078 | 978 | 64% | 2015-04-25 | Won |
| 1009 | 958 | 57% | 2015-01-13 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1167 | 51% | 2014-01-13 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1031 | 46% | 2013-12-22 | Won |
| 983 | 1031 | 43% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 1031 | 983 | 57% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1167 | 30% | 2013-10-18 | Won |
| 900 | 1016 | 34% | 2013-02-07 | Won |
| 901 | 1012 | 35% | 2012-09-30 | Lost |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-30 | Lost |
| 901 | 1012 | 35% | 2012-09-23 | Won |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-23 | Won |
| 973 | 948 | 54% | 2012-06-15 | Lost |
| 944 | 1109 | 28% | 2012-04-29 | Lost |
| 973 | 974 | 50% | 2012-03-07 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2012-02-27 | Lost |
| 1067 | 917 | 70% | 2012-01-01 | Lost |
| 879 | 1012 | 32% | 2011-05-17 | Lost |
| 952 | 952 | 50% | 2010-09-25 | Won |
| 958 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-08-31 | Lost |
| 919 | 1035 | 34% | 2009-06-22 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1027 | 52% | 2009-01-02 | Tied |
| 965 | 973 | 49% | 2008-07-30 | Won |
| 903 | 1113 | 23% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
| 1011 | 943 | 60% | 2006-08-14 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1041 | 48% | 2004-11-28 | Won |
| 1109 | 1154 | 44% | 2000-01-09 | Won |
| 1003 | 869 | 68% | 1999-10-01 | Lost |
| 992 | 1151 | 29% | 1996-10-01 | Won |
| 1186 | 911 | 83% | 1994-03-02 | Lost |
| 1041 | 984 | 58% | 1992-02-26 | Lost |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1010.8 vs 1026.6 has a 47.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).