Red Packets
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 266 (51 on the archive and 216 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 146
Defender wins (Russian): 119
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-08-26 | | Lost |
| 1161 | 910 | 81% | 2025-08-18 | | Won |
| 1053 | 1000 | 58% | 2024-04-01 | | Lost |
| 878 | 1000 | 33% | 2024-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2024-01-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2021-08-10 | | Won |
| 1013 | 1227 | 23% | 2021-08-10 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1061 | 43% | 2021-01-17 | | Lost |
| 932 | 1172 | 20% | 2020-12-25 | | Lost |
| 1172 | 932 | 80% | 2020-12-20 | | Won |
| 930 | 1000 | 40% | 2019-05-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1123 | 33% | 2018-02-09 | | Won |
| 934 | 956 | 47% | 2018-01-27 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1143 | 31% | 2018-01-27 | | Lost |
| 894 | 1079 | 26% | 2017-06-08 | | Lost |
| 1032 | 1006 | 54% | 2016-12-15 | | Lost |
| 1222 | 1000 | 78% | 2016-06-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 987 | 52% | 2016-02-01 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1147 | 38% | 2015-07-08 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2015-04-25 | | Won |
| 983 | 960 | 53% | 2015-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1079 | 39% | 2014-01-13 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 2013-12-22 | | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2013-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2013-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1079 | 41% | 2013-10-18 | A | Won |
| 900 | 1000 | 36% | 2013-02-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2012-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2012-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2012-09-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2012-09-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2012-06-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2012-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2012-03-07 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2012-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 917 | 71% | 2012-01-01 | | Lost |
| 972 | 1000 | 46% | 2011-05-17 | | Lost |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2010-09-25 | | Won |
| 960 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-08-31 | | Lost |
| 906 | 1000 | 37% | 2009-06-22 | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2009-01-02 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1093 | 37% | 2008-07-30 | | Won |
| 905 | 1150 | 20% | 2008-01-01 | | Won |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2006-08-14 | | Lost |
| 1082 | 982 | 64% | 2004-11-28 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2000-01-09 | | Won |
| 1077 | 1000 | 61% | 1999-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 1999-06-27 | | Won |
| 992 | 1141 | 30% | 1996-10-01 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1000 | 61% | 1994-03-02 | | Lost |
| 954 | 1000 | 43% | 1992-02-26 | | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1016.4 vs 1027.2 has a 48.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).