Red Packets
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 261 (48 on the archive and 213 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 110
Defender wins (Russian): 149
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1063 | 995 | 60% | 2024-04-01 | Lost |
| 861 | 880 | 47% | 2024-02-24 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1143 | 50% | 2024-01-08 | Won |
| 1017 | 1209 | 25% | 2021-08-10 | Won |
| 1118 | 1209 | 37% | 2021-08-10 | Won |
| 1007 | 1021 | 48% | 2021-01-17 | Lost |
| 932 | 1173 | 20% | 2020-12-25 | Lost |
| 1173 | 932 | 80% | 2020-12-20 | Won |
| 978 | 1055 | 39% | 2019-05-05 | Won |
| 1162 | 1140 | 53% | 2018-02-09 | Won |
| 909 | 956 | 43% | 2018-01-27 | Won |
| 1001 | 1099 | 36% | 2018-01-27 | Lost |
| 893 | 1109 | 22% | 2017-06-08 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1030 | 47% | 2016-12-15 | Lost |
| 1190 | 961 | 79% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 998 | 998 | 50% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1034 | 1022 | 52% | 2015-07-08 | Lost |
| 1022 | 977 | 56% | 2015-04-25 | Won |
| 1010 | 963 | 57% | 2015-01-13 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1109 | 59% | 2014-01-13 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2013-12-22 | Won |
| 983 | 1032 | 43% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 1032 | 983 | 57% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1109 | 37% | 2013-10-18 | Won |
| 900 | 1160 | 18% | 2013-02-07 | Won |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-30 | Lost |
| 901 | 1013 | 34% | 2012-09-30 | Lost |
| 901 | 1013 | 34% | 2012-09-23 | Won |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-23 | Won |
| 1011 | 955 | 58% | 2012-06-15 | Lost |
| 944 | 1094 | 30% | 2012-04-29 | Lost |
| 1011 | 975 | 55% | 2012-03-07 | Lost |
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2012-02-27 | Lost |
| 1067 | 917 | 70% | 2012-01-01 | Lost |
| 944 | 893 | 57% | 2011-05-17 | Lost |
| 952 | 952 | 50% | 2010-09-25 | Won |
| 963 | 1039 | 39% | 2010-08-31 | Lost |
| 918 | 1034 | 34% | 2009-06-22 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1027 | 51% | 2009-01-02 | Tied |
| 964 | 944 | 53% | 2008-07-30 | Won |
| 901 | 1114 | 23% | 2008-01-01 | Won |
| 1010 | 943 | 60% | 2006-08-14 | Lost |
| 1071 | 946 | 67% | 2004-11-28 | Won |
| 1011 | 1181 | 27% | 2004-09-16 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1154 | 35% | 2000-01-09 | Won |
| 1058 | 869 | 75% | 1999-10-01 | Lost |
| 1099 | 911 | 75% | 1994-03-02 | Lost |
| 1059 | 983 | 61% | 1992-02-26 | Lost |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1006.8 vs 1023.4 has a 47.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).