Le Manoir
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 322 (59 on the archive and 263 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 216
Defender wins (German): 105
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 872 | 73% | 2024-08-22 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1047 | 46% | 2024-07-08 | Won |
| 991 | 1019 | 46% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 973 | 1136 | 28% | 2023-03-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1032 | 43% | 2022-04-05 | Won |
| 979 | 984 | 49% | 2020-07-15 | Won |
| 1009 | 1014 | 49% | 2019-10-17 | Lost |
| 1170 | 952 | 78% | 2019-10-02 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1046 | 46% | 2019-02-10 | Won |
| 992 | 1141 | 30% | 2016-11-02 | Lost |
| 1023 | 964 | 58% | 2016-07-26 | Won |
| 967 | 1077 | 35% | 2016-03-13 | Lost |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2016-02-14 | Won |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2016-02-14 | Won |
| 1174 | 1173 | 50% | 2015-11-04 | Won |
| 988 | 974 | 52% | 2015-11-01 | Won |
| 974 | 988 | 48% | 2015-10-25 | Won |
| 1173 | 1133 | 56% | 2015-10-24 | Won |
| 984 | 1056 | 40% | 2015-09-18 | Lost |
| 988 | 988 | 50% | 2015-09-15 | Won |
| 1133 | 971 | 72% | 2015-08-28 | Won |
| 988 | 844 | 70% | 2015-05-30 | Won |
| 982 | 984 | 50% | 2015-03-01 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1038 | 63% | 2014-11-10 | Won |
| 1038 | 998 | 56% | 2014-08-16 | Won |
| 850 | 974 | 33% | 2014-05-16 | Won |
| 1220 | 1063 | 71% | 2014-04-05 | Won |
| 1220 | 958 | 82% | 2014-03-20 | Won |
| 786 | 1063 | 17% | 2013-12-05 | Won |
| 1057 | 1066 | 49% | 2013-09-03 | Lost |
| 958 | 1021 | 41% | 2013-08-25 | Won |
| 1045 | 1108 | 41% | 2013-05-06 | Won |
| 862 | 951 | 37% | 2013-04-21 | Won |
| 1030 | 959 | 60% | 2012-09-22 | Won |
| 880 | 959 | 39% | 2012-05-05 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1101 | 49% | 2012-03-14 | Won |
| 1133 | 1043 | 63% | 2012-02-07 | Won |
| 1132 | 1121 | 52% | 2012-02-02 | Won |
| 1044 | 1234 | 25% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 1181 | 1036 | 70% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2010-01-15 | Won |
| 846 | 875 | 46% | 2009-06-23 | Won |
| 940 | 1062 | 33% | 2008-12-17 | Lost |
| 940 | 1062 | 33% | 2008-12-17 | Lost |
| 940 | 1062 | 33% | 2008-12-12 | Won |
| 1047 | 952 | 63% | 2007-07-22 | Won |
| 1021 | 862 | 71% | 2007-07-07 | Won |
| 1133 | 1233 | 36% | 2007-01-12 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1118 | 37% | 2006-07-05 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-05-07 | Lost |
| 919 | 1160 | 20% | 2005-01-19 | Won |
| 1006 | 1003 | 50% | 2002-01-01 | Lost |
| 959 | 1010 | 43% | 2000-01-01 | Won |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 1999-07-24 | Won |
| 1101 | 982 | 66% | 1998-12-06 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1066 | 64% | 1998-05-07 | Lost |
| 948 | 974 | 46% | 1997-07-16 | Won |
| 983 | 1233 | 19% | 1995-11-04 | Won |
| 881 | 1170 | 16% | 1994-04-11 | Won |
Attacking (40 wins) average ELOs: 1015.1 vs 1024.3 has a 48.67% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).