ASL Scenario Archive

Ambush!

Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (35 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)

Attacker wins (Bulgarian): 16

Defender wins (Partisan): 24

With balance for the defender (only):

Games played: 1

Attacker wins (Bulgarian): 1

Defender wins (Partisan): 0

Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.

Attacker ELO	Defender ELO	Expected chance to win	Date	Balance	Outcome
875	1031	29%	2026-09-03		Lost
1082	982	64%	2026-01-16	D	Won
1000	1006	49%	2022-08-10		Won
1066	1107	44%	2021-06-21		Won
1066	1107	44%	2021-06-20		Won
1000	1052	43%	2020-06-28		Lost
1032	1006	54%	2018-06-21		Won
934	1002	40%	2017-10-06		Lost
846	981	31%	2016-11-12		Lost
846	981	31%	2016-11-12		Lost
1080	1051	54%	2016-09-18		Lost
950	1000	43%	2015-04-16		Won
1039	923	66%	2014-11-28		Won
1000	1108	35%	2014-06-18		Won
1233	983	81%	2014-05-25		Won
1079	829	81%	2013-11-26		Won
1000	975	54%	2013-05-22		Won
959	1000	44%	2011-11-10		Won
1000	1147	30%	2010-03-27		Won
906	1000	37%	2009-10-16		Lost
1147	1000	70%	2009-08-25		Lost
1000	1093	37%	2008-07-18		Lost
1209	1031	74%	2006-02-05		Lost
1101	1000	64%	2006-01-24		Won
1000	1175	27%	2005-01-19		Lost
1031	1000	54%	2004-10-17		Won
982	1082	36%	2004-02-27		Lost
1000	1058	42%	2004-01-29		Won
1035	1102	40%	2001-09-25		Lost
1074	1000	60%	1999-05-23		Tied
1000	1008	49%	1998-01-17		Lost
1000	1077	39%	1997-03-29		Won
1000	1076	39%	1995-08-10		Lost
1000	954	57%	1991-04-17		Lost
1070	1000	60%			Lost

Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1018.3 vs 1026.5 has a 48.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).