Escape from Derna
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 33 (6 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 5
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1096 | 1096 | 50% | 2026-06-22 | Won |
| 992 | 1038 | 43% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 988 | 1054 | 41% | 2018-03-29 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1036 | 54% | 2012-09-08 | Lost |
| 948 | 1151 | 24% | 2012-08-25 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1118 | 42% | 1995-06-29 | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1024.7 vs 1082.2 has a 41.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).