Retribution
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 186 (31 on the archive and 155 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 107
Defender wins (Italian): 79
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 959 | 1031 | 40% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 991 | 1008 | 48% | 2022-12-04 | Won |
| 1149 | 1161 | 48% | 2022-05-28 | Won |
| 928 | 1087 | 29% | 2022-05-01 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1005 | 50% | 2022-05-01 | Won |
| 1064 | 947 | 66% | 2022-03-04 | Won |
| 1219 | 1095 | 67% | 2020-10-20 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2020-02-05 | Won |
| 981 | 1063 | 38% | 2020-01-03 | Won |
| 959 | 986 | 46% | 2019-09-24 | Won |
| 943 | 1032 | 37% | 2019-04-10 | Won |
| 1002 | 994 | 51% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 984 | 1025 | 44% | 2017-01-20 | Won |
| 896 | 1042 | 30% | 2016-05-18 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1106 | 39% | 2015-08-25 | Lost |
| 986 | 1143 | 29% | 2015-03-27 | Lost |
| 886 | 982 | 37% | 2014-08-28 | Won |
| 950 | 1038 | 38% | 2013-08-02 | Won |
| 1002 | 969 | 55% | 2013-02-21 | Lost |
| 881 | 998 | 34% | 2012-10-15 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1055 | 46% | 2012-02-05 | Won |
| 1151 | 1037 | 66% | 2011-05-07 | Won |
| 1032 | 1058 | 46% | 2010-05-21 | Won |
| 1004 | 1099 | 37% | 2006-09-24 | Won |
| 1065 | 1082 | 48% | 2004-05-09 | Won |
| 1029 | 1259 | 21% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1003 | 68% | 1995-11-04 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1118 | 65% | 1995-07-16 | Lost |
| 984 | 1025 | 44% | 1994-09-17 | Won |
| 1117 | 1121 | 49% | | Lost |
| 1117 | 1000 | 66% | | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1026.7 vs 1054.3 has a 46.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).