Strangers in a Strange Land
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 312 (55 on the archive and 257 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 165
Defender wins (German): 146
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 908 | 908 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Lost |
| 848 | 859 | 48% | 2024-04-21 | Lost |
| 872 | 991 | 34% | 2022-08-31 | Won |
| 1032 | 1210 | 26% | 2021-06-16 | Lost |
| 799 | 937 | 31% | 2020-10-05 | Won |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 952 | 1106 | 29% | 2020-08-12 | Won |
| 924 | 864 | 59% | 2020-08-03 | Tied |
| 1031 | 1014 | 52% | 2020-05-09 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1032 | 46% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 1207 | 1086 | 67% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1137 | 1010 | 68% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1207 | 1032 | 73% | 2020-03-05 | Won |
| 995 | 1049 | 42% | 2020-02-28 | Won |
| 1096 | 1316 | 22% | 2018-09-05 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2017-11-23 | Won |
| 896 | 914 | 47% | 2017-08-08 | Won |
| 983 | 1038 | 42% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
| 956 | 911 | 56% | 2017-03-21 | Won |
| 911 | 956 | 44% | 2017-03-04 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1219 | 33% | 2016-12-07 | Lost |
| 957 | 1193 | 20% | 2015-11-16 | Won |
| 1038 | 931 | 65% | 2015-06-14 | Won |
| 930 | 1243 | 14% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 1037 | 998 | 56% | 2014-08-02 | Won |
| 1061 | 1160 | 36% | 2014-06-01 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 1003 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 957 | 1141 | 26% | 2012-10-07 | Won |
| 982 | 996 | 48% | 2012-09-23 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 1209 | 954 | 81% | 2012-08-04 | Won |
| 1094 | 1095 | 50% | 2011-10-09 | Won |
| 950 | 1003 | 42% | 2010-01-21 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1032 | 51% | 2009-11-27 | Won |
| 984 | 1038 | 42% | 2009-09-29 | Won |
| 992 | 1032 | 44% | 2009-02-26 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1228 | 28% | 2008-11-01 | Won |
| 1010 | 1115 | 35% | 2008-01-21 | Won |
| 1046 | 1060 | 48% | 2006-02-10 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1061 | 56% | 2004-09-19 | Lost |
| 928 | 994 | 41% | 2004-09-19 | Won |
| 1029 | 1055 | 46% | 2004-07-25 | Won |
| 1082 | 1046 | 55% | 2002-10-13 | Won |
| 983 | 829 | 71% | 2002-06-01 | Lost |
| 851 | 1029 | 26% | 2001-05-06 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1133 | 48% | 2001-01-26 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1083 | 50% | 2000-08-26 | Won |
| 976 | 948 | 54% | 1999-12-27 | Lost |
| 846 | 983 | 31% | 1999-01-23 | Lost |
| 1133 | 856 | 83% | 1995-11-08 | Won |
| 1217 | 919 | 85% | 1993-10-01 | Won |
| 1061 | 954 | 65% | 1993-08-07 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1121 | 49% | | Lost |
| 1117 | 1121 | 49% | | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1019.1 vs 1035.2 has a 47.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).