The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1127 | 1127 | 50% | 2024-12-24 | Lost |
| 949 | 916 | 55% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 883 | 1009 | 33% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 946 | 1036 | 37% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1112 | 934 | 74% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1184 | 964 | 78% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1072 | 1021 | 57% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 985 | 964 | 53% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1215 | 27% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1042 | 49% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 1012 | 955 | 58% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1054 | 1053 | 50% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1054 | 1054 | 50% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 1003 | 1040 | 45% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1311 | 936 | 90% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 916 | 955 | 44% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1111 | 1109 | 50% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 981 | 1215 | 21% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1311 | 16% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1036 | 57% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1149 | 882 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 976 | 1296 | 14% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 983 | 1068 | 38% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1041.9 vs 1047.2 has a 49.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).