The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2024-12-24 | Lost |
| 997 | 1001 | 49% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 1007 | 1014 | 49% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 1084 | 950 | 68% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1053 | 970 | 62% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1136 | 964 | 73% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1009 | 1020 | 48% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1019 | 964 | 58% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1219 | 26% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1042 | 49% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 1012 | 948 | 59% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1055 | 1059 | 49% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1055 | 1055 | 50% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 1022 | 1021 | 50% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1017 | 81% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1001 | 943 | 58% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1115 | 1199 | 38% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 1219 | 20% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1264 | 19% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1041 | 56% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1149 | 882 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 977 | 1310 | 13% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 984 | 973 | 52% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1049.8 vs 1048.4 has a 50.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).