The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1094 | 1094 | 50% | 2024-12-24 | Lost |
| 995 | 947 | 57% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 950 | 996 | 43% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 1066 | 988 | 61% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1058 | 1044 | 52% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1136 | 965 | 73% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1025 | 1023 | 50% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1052 | 964 | 62% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1219 | 26% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1041 | 49% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 1012 | 947 | 59% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1029 | 1035 | 49% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1029 | 1029 | 50% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 1012 | 1031 | 47% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1242 | 972 | 83% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 947 | 946 | 50% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1117 | 1191 | 40% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 1219 | 20% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1242 | 21% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1028 | 52% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1147 | 882 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 996 | 1329 | 13% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 985 | 1014 | 46% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1042.1 vs 1047.6 has a 49.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).