The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2024-12-24 | | Lost |
| 993 | 1000 | 49% | 2023-05-19 | | Won |
| 966 | 1029 | 41% | 2023-03-02 | | Lost |
| 1070 | 974 | 63% | 2022-01-23 | | Won |
| 1079 | 977 | 64% | 2021-12-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2021-11-27 | | Won |
| 997 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-11-19 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-10-19 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1218 | 26% | 2021-08-11 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2021-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2021-05-01 | | Won |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2021-04-20 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2021-01-31 | | Won |
| 1088 | 951 | 69% | 2020-11-16 | | Lost |
| 1170 | 1174 | 49% | 2020-11-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2020-02-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2018-10-26 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2015-08-31 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1170 | 29% | 2014-11-11 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2013-12-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2013-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2011-03-07 | | Lost |
| 1144 | 881 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | | Won |
| 1151 | 1219 | 40% | 2005-04-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 959 | 56% | 1994-12-18 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1033.8 vs 1041 has a 48.96% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).