The Defense of Luga
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24 (12 on the archive and 12 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 5
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 986 | 956 | 54% | 2025-08-17 | Lost |
| 985 | 1080 | 37% | 2022-02-20 | Lost |
| 985 | 1080 | 37% | 2022-02-20 | Lost |
| 967 | 1077 | 35% | 2021-06-28 | Lost |
| 880 | 1004 | 33% | 2020-12-31 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1108 | 55% | 2020-05-21 | Won |
| 1172 | 1306 | 32% | 2020-03-17 | Lost |
| 1110 | 986 | 67% | 2018-06-29 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1174 | 57% | 2017-10-07 | Tied |
| 1036 | 1027 | 51% | 2014-03-01 | Tied |
| 1022 | 941 | 61% | 2013-08-11 | Won |
| 1020 | 1038 | 47% | 2013-07-03 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1044.4 vs 1064.8 has a 47.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).