The Red House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 92 (21 on the archive and 71 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 49
Defender wins (German): 43
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2024-02-28 | | Won |
| 1070 | 974 | 63% | 2022-04-30 | | Won |
| 969 | 1132 | 28% | 2021-12-11 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1007 | 66% | 2021-10-09 | | Won |
| 1015 | 967 | 57% | 2020-07-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2018-05-12 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2018-05-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2018-04-08 | | Lost |
| 964 | 1075 | 35% | 2017-06-30 | | Lost |
| 1252 | 983 | 82% | 2015-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 695 | 91% | 2013-05-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2013-02-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2011-12-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1214 | 23% | 2006-10-12 | | Won |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2006-10-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2006-01-18 | | Won |
| 1214 | 1031 | 74% | 2006-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1242 | 20% | 2004-11-14 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1160 | 50% | 2002-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2001-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 1988-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1046.2 vs 1033.3 has a 51.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).