First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (17 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 25
Defender wins (Japanese): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1037 | 1119 | 38% | 2024-12-06 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1182 | 30% | 2024-03-09 | | Lost |
| 859 | 1000 | 31% | 2024-02-25 | | Lost |
| 1079 | 1102 | 47% | 2024-01-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2023-08-06 | | Won |
| 841 | 1072 | 21% | 2023-05-08 | | Won |
| 967 | 1159 | 25% | 2022-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1159 | 33% | 2022-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2020-07-28 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1030 | 68% | 2018-12-28 | | Lost |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2018-11-14 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2017-11-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 962 | 55% | 2014-12-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2012-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1233 | 1021 | 77% | 2006-12-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 2002-11-21 | | Won |
| 1160 | 1159 | 50% | 2002-03-18 | | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1048.2 vs 1064.2 has a 47.69% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).