First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46 (17 on the archive and 29 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 25
Defender wins (Japanese): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 988 | 1120 | 32% | 2024-12-06 | Won |
| 988 | 1170 | 26% | 2024-03-09 | Lost |
| 868 | 913 | 44% | 2024-02-25 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1102 | 47% | 2024-01-08 | Lost |
| 909 | 909 | 50% | 2023-08-06 | Won |
| 866 | 1057 | 25% | 2023-05-08 | Won |
| 966 | 1113 | 30% | 2022-12-29 | Lost |
| 986 | 1113 | 32% | 2022-03-20 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1190 | 35% | 2020-07-28 | Won |
| 1113 | 1029 | 62% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2018-11-14 | Won |
| 1158 | 1031 | 68% | 2017-11-17 | Lost |
| 935 | 962 | 46% | 2014-12-07 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-10-07 | Lost |
| 1233 | 1021 | 77% | 2006-12-04 | Won |
| 1182 | 1127 | 58% | 2002-11-21 | Won |
| 1161 | 1113 | 57% | 2002-03-18 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1045.4 vs 1072.4 has a 46.13% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).