Bailey's Demise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 58 (17 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 28
Defender wins (Japanese): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-01-29 | Lost |
| 828 | 1163 | 13% | 2023-01-23 | Won |
| 982 | 1019 | 45% | 2020-09-19 | Won |
| 981 | 951 | 54% | 2020-08-01 | Won |
| 1163 | 1000 | 72% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2018-11-27 | Lost |
| 1117 | 904 | 77% | 2011-01-13 | Won |
| 971 | 953 | 53% | 2009-07-06 | Lost |
| 919 | 1123 | 24% | 2008-10-08 | Won |
| 1125 | 1103 | 53% | 2007-08-18 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1121 | 36% | 2007-05-19 | Won |
| 1103 | 1066 | 55% | 2005-07-27 | Won |
| 1169 | 1271 | 36% | 2003-06-27 | Won |
| 1123 | 919 | 76% | 2002-10-07 | Won |
| 978 | 1084 | 35% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
| 1138 | 1147 | 49% | 2002-01-05 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1041 vs 1051.5 has a 48.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).