Bailey's Demise
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (16 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 28
Defender wins (Japanese): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1102 | 1078 | 53% | 2024-01-29 | Lost |
| 980 | 1201 | 22% | 2023-01-23 | Won |
| 1027 | 1040 | 48% | 2020-09-19 | Won |
| 1189 | 1081 | 65% | 2020-08-01 | Won |
| 1201 | 1051 | 70% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 1173 | 1173 | 50% | 2018-11-27 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1084 | 47% | 2011-01-13 | Won |
| 971 | 916 | 58% | 2009-07-06 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1140 | 48% | 2008-10-08 | Won |
| 1124 | 1073 | 57% | 2007-08-18 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1228 | 23% | 2007-05-19 | Won |
| 1073 | 1065 | 51% | 2005-07-27 | Won |
| 1283 | 1271 | 52% | 2003-06-27 | Won |
| 1140 | 892 | 81% | 2002-10-07 | Won |
| 967 | 1045 | 39% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1096 vs 1089.2 has a 50.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).