A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 133 (18 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 58
Defender wins (Russian): 74
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1065 | 1017 | 57% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1099 | 943 | 71% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 986 | 948 | 55% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 866 | 1080 | 23% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1032 | 63% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1028 | 1002 | 54% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 972 | 986 | 48% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 890 | 1141 | 19% | 2007-09-20 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1035 | 60% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 1273 | 1263 | 51% | 2004-07-22 | Lost |
| 909 | 1055 | 30% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1159 | 1313 | 29% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1159 | 59% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1169 | 49% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1072 | 50% | 1996-12-18 | Won |
| 1070 | 1029 | 56% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1062.5 vs 1073 has a 48.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).