A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 129 (15 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 57
Defender wins (Russian): 71
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1084 | 1084 | 50% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1063 | 981 | 62% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 1032 | 943 | 63% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 875 | 1026 | 30% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1014 | 56% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1026 | 986 | 56% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 973 | 1032 | 42% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1029 | 59% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 944 | 1055 | 35% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1133 | 1254 | 33% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1029 | 959 | 60% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1223 | 31% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1142 | 49% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1014 | 58% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1045.6 vs 1055.3 has a 48.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).