A Stiff Fight
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 263 (44 on the archive and 219 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 133
Defender wins (Gurkha): 130
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 916 | 885 | 54% | 2025-09-17 | Won |
| 864 | 1070 | 23% | 2024-12-28 | Won |
| 1127 | 1102 | 54% | 2023-06-04 | Won |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2022-11-10 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1022 | 50% | 2022-05-11 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1082 | 55% | 2021-10-18 | Lost |
| 1028 | 942 | 62% | 2021-08-19 | Lost |
| 741 | 949 | 23% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1125 | 48% | 2021-01-16 | Lost |
| 950 | 923 | 54% | 2020-06-07 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1104 | 50% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-01-26 | Won |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1114 | 1114 | 50% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1124 | 1065 | 58% | 2017-01-10 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1151 | 54% | 2015-02-19 | Won |
| 1057 | 905 | 71% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1035 | 1017 | 53% | 2014-01-13 | Lost |
| 1145 | 953 | 75% | 2013-12-22 | Lost |
| 1142 | 1057 | 62% | 2013-10-10 | Lost |
| 1057 | 976 | 61% | 2013-06-11 | Won |
| 870 | 943 | 40% | 2012-08-02 | Won |
| 1007 | 1051 | 44% | 2011-10-05 | Won |
| 1162 | 1065 | 64% | 2011-04-16 | Won |
| 916 | 1243 | 13% | 2011-03-10 | Lost |
| 963 | 995 | 45% | 2011-02-19 | Won |
| 1065 | 1148 | 38% | 2010-10-06 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-02-20 | Won |
| 1127 | 1210 | 38% | 2008-08-30 | Lost |
| 997 | 1110 | 34% | 2008-08-24 | Lost |
| 1293 | 1035 | 82% | 2008-07-22 | Won |
| 1062 | 1152 | 37% | 2007-10-03 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1198 | 43% | 2006-10-06 | Lost |
| 969 | 1063 | 37% | 2005-01-23 | Won |
| 969 | 1063 | 37% | 2005-01-23 | Won |
| 920 | 928 | 49% | 2004-09-18 | Won |
| 1023 | 916 | 65% | 2000-10-28 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1039 | 66% | 1999-11-26 | Won |
| 1156 | 1111 | 56% | 1999-08-01 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1123 | 33% | 1999-07-31 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1065 | 43% | 1999-07-06 | Won |
| 1021 | 932 | 63% | 1999-05-15 | Won |
| 893 | 1028 | 31% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
| 1035 | 1103 | 40% | | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1037.5 vs 1049.2 has a 48.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).