A Stiff Fight
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 267 (48 on the archive and 219 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 133
Defender wins (Gurkha): 134
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 950 | 880 | 60% | 2025-09-17 | Won |
| 1014 | 1025 | 48% | 2025-09-12 | Lost |
| 858 | 1008 | 30% | 2024-12-28 | Won |
| 1173 | 1102 | 60% | 2023-06-04 | Won |
| 1091 | 959 | 68% | 2022-11-10 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1010 | 53% | 2022-05-11 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1082 | 49% | 2021-10-18 | Lost |
| 1063 | 967 | 63% | 2021-08-19 | Lost |
| 979 | 948 | 54% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 1134 | 1223 | 37% | 2021-01-16 | Lost |
| 950 | 923 | 54% | 2020-06-07 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1122 | 50% | 2019-10-11 | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-01-26 | Won |
| 1037 | 1049 | 48% | 2018-03-24 | Won |
| 1173 | 1172 | 50% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1125 | 1117 | 51% | 2017-01-10 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1110 | 62% | 2015-02-19 | Won |
| 1058 | 906 | 71% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1038 | 1020 | 53% | 2014-01-13 | Lost |
| 1143 | 962 | 74% | 2013-12-22 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1058 | 62% | 2013-10-10 | Lost |
| 1058 | 987 | 60% | 2013-06-11 | Won |
| 870 | 943 | 40% | 2012-08-02 | Won |
| 1008 | 1024 | 48% | 2011-10-05 | Won |
| 1126 | 1117 | 51% | 2011-04-16 | Won |
| 950 | 1253 | 15% | 2011-03-10 | Lost |
| 963 | 995 | 45% | 2011-02-19 | Won |
| 1081 | 1147 | 41% | 2010-10-06 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-02-20 | Won |
| 1127 | 1186 | 42% | 2008-08-30 | Lost |
| 997 | 1058 | 41% | 2008-08-24 | Lost |
| 1269 | 1036 | 79% | 2008-07-22 | Won |
| 1065 | 1263 | 24% | 2007-10-06 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1140 | 39% | 2007-10-03 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1211 | 40% | 2006-10-06 | Lost |
| 969 | 1068 | 36% | 2005-01-23 | Won |
| 969 | 1068 | 36% | 2005-01-23 | Won |
| 987 | 1263 | 17% | 2004-12-12 | Lost |
| 920 | 927 | 49% | 2004-09-18 | Won |
| 1041 | 950 | 63% | 2000-10-28 | Lost |
| 1198 | 1038 | 72% | 1999-11-26 | Won |
| 1292 | 1263 | 54% | 1999-09-12 | Lost |
| 1198 | 1126 | 60% | 1999-08-01 | Lost |
| 993 | 1041 | 43% | 1999-07-31 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1081 | 65% | 1999-07-06 | Won |
| 985 | 934 | 57% | 1999-05-15 | Won |
| 893 | 1032 | 31% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
| 1057 | 1018 | 56% | | Lost |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1058.3 vs 1060.5 has a 49.68% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).