Nocturnal Attrition
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 12 (10 on the archive and 2 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 5
Defender wins (Italian): 6
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (New Zealand): 0
Defender wins (Italian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2023-06-05 | Lost |
| 1214 | 1054 | 72% | 2020-01-02 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2017-04-23 | Lost |
| 1106 | 950 | 71% | 2014-10-20 | Won |
| 952 | 1067 | 34% | 2014-03-26 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1055 | 46% | 2006-05-06 | Won |
| 1033 | 1117 | 38% | 2005-05-05 | Lost |
| 1100 | 890 | 77% | 2001-01-20 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1160 | 36% | 2000-03-05 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1028 | 65% | 1988-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1075.1 vs 1042 has a 54.75% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).