Friday the 13th
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (Russian): 38
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1065 | 41% | 2026-04-04 | Lost |
| 970 | 893 | 61% | 2026-02-04 | Won |
| 1007 | 1037 | 46% | 2025-10-15 | Won |
| 1019 | 1081 | 41% | 2025-01-25 | Won |
| 1240 | 1218 | 53% | 2024-06-06 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1135 | 54% | 2024-05-29 | Lost |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 1187 | 1127 | 59% | 2024-01-04 | Won |
| 1012 | 851 | 72% | 2023-10-05 | Won |
| 1023 | 1232 | 23% | 2023-06-11 | Won |
| 928 | 998 | 40% | 2022-05-14 | Won |
| 1097 | 1136 | 44% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1232 | 22% | 2021-03-18 | Lost |
| 1029 | 780 | 81% | 2020-11-18 | Lost |
| 976 | 1117 | 31% | 2020-05-23 | Lost |
| 961 | 1056 | 37% | 2020-01-17 | Lost |
| 1138 | 937 | 76% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1009 | 50% | 2019-08-10 | Lost |
| 1027 | 983 | 56% | 2019-02-01 | Won |
| 950 | 1056 | 35% | 2018-11-03 | Lost |
| 992 | 1064 | 40% | 2018-07-31 | Lost |
| 1056 | 988 | 60% | 2018-06-02 | Lost |
| 1080 | 913 | 72% | 2018-04-28 | Won |
| 1056 | 1095 | 44% | 2018-02-16 | Lost |
| 1080 | 922 | 71% | 2017-11-28 | Won |
| 947 | 1011 | 41% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 1038 | 993 | 56% | 2017-05-21 | Won |
| 1152 | 1232 | 39% | 2017-05-06 | Lost |
| 893 | 1080 | 25% | 2017-01-28 | Won |
| 900 | 1221 | 14% | 2016-03-19 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1172 | 50% | 2016-02-27 | Won |
| 1123 | 928 | 75% | 2015-11-27 | Won |
| 969 | 1226 | 19% | 2015-10-08 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1013 | 52% | 2015-03-14 | Lost |
| 1099 | 983 | 66% | 2013-10-10 | Won |
| 927 | 1009 | 38% | 2012-11-16 | Lost |
| 951 | 985 | 45% | 2012-11-02 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2012-10-13 | Lost |
| 982 | 999 | 48% | 2012-08-17 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1108 | 37% | 2011-05-27 | Won |
| 1165 | 1061 | 65% | 2011-04-23 | Won |
| 926 | 1117 | 25% | 2010-10-05 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1142 | 67% | 2010-05-03 | Won |
| 1101 | 1045 | 58% | 2010-04-11 | Lost |
| 993 | 1101 | 35% | 2010-04-09 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2010-03-07 | Lost |
| 1095 | 983 | 66% | 2010-02-28 | Lost |
| 1006 | 957 | 57% | 2009-11-08 | Lost |
| 1012 | 989 | 53% | 2009-07-23 | Lost |
| 978 | 1190 | 23% | 2008-12-29 | Won |
| 1098 | 1159 | 41% | 2008-09-21 | Lost |
| 1102 | 904 | 76% | 2007-10-30 | Won |
| 1233 | 1135 | 64% | 2006-04-10 | Won |
| 917 | 996 | 39% | 2006-03-09 | Lost |
| 1269 | 1036 | 79% | 2006-01-01 | Won |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2005-04-23 | Won |
| 1264 | 1220 | 56% | 2005-02-05 | Won |
| 984 | 982 | 50% | 2004-10-07 | Lost |
| 1233 | 999 | 79% | 2004-03-03 | Won |
| 1087 | 1059 | 54% | 2003-10-31 | Lost |
| 833 | 1200 | 11% | 2002-12-20 | Won |
| 953 | 1200 | 19% | 2002-03-27 | Won |
| 1059 | 985 | 60% | 2002-01-16 | Lost |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2001-08-07 | Won |
| 976 | 1264 | 16% | 2001-07-14 | Won |
| 1036 | 1018 | 53% | | Lost |
| 1036 | 1218 | 26% | | Won |
Attacking (31 wins) average ELOs: 1038.8 vs 1059.8 has a 46.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).