Friday the 13th
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 60
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (Russian): 35
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1014 | 1052 | 45% | 2025-01-25 | Won |
| 1240 | 1228 | 52% | 2024-06-06 | Lost |
| 1147 | 1139 | 51% | 2024-05-29 | Lost |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 940 | 1053 | 34% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1109 | 54% | 2024-01-04 | Won |
| 1042 | 875 | 72% | 2023-10-05 | Won |
| 1210 | 1316 | 35% | 2023-06-11 | Won |
| 924 | 869 | 58% | 2022-05-14 | Won |
| 1149 | 1116 | 55% | 2021-09-25 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1316 | 15% | 2021-03-18 | Lost |
| 1029 | 776 | 81% | 2020-11-18 | Lost |
| 976 | 1058 | 38% | 2020-05-23 | Lost |
| 961 | 1043 | 38% | 2020-01-17 | Lost |
| 1137 | 937 | 76% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1008 | 50% | 2019-08-10 | Lost |
| 1025 | 984 | 56% | 2019-02-01 | Won |
| 949 | 984 | 45% | 2018-11-03 | Lost |
| 910 | 1219 | 14% | 2018-07-31 | Lost |
| 1056 | 896 | 72% | 2018-06-02 | Lost |
| 1075 | 908 | 72% | 2018-04-28 | Won |
| 980 | 1087 | 35% | 2018-02-16 | Lost |
| 1075 | 925 | 70% | 2017-11-28 | Won |
| 944 | 1011 | 40% | 2017-10-21 | Won |
| 1038 | 1005 | 55% | 2017-05-21 | Won |
| 1150 | 1316 | 28% | 2017-05-06 | Lost |
| 893 | 1026 | 32% | 2017-01-28 | Won |
| 922 | 1209 | 16% | 2016-03-19 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2016-02-27 | Won |
| 1126 | 931 | 75% | 2015-11-27 | Won |
| 1052 | 1223 | 27% | 2015-10-08 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1012 | 52% | 2015-03-14 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1061 | 55% | 2013-10-10 | Won |
| 928 | 1009 | 39% | 2012-11-16 | Lost |
| 976 | 987 | 48% | 2012-11-02 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2012-10-13 | Lost |
| 982 | 1000 | 47% | 2012-08-17 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1108 | 37% | 2011-05-27 | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2011-04-23 | Won |
| 948 | 1058 | 35% | 2010-10-05 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1058 | 56% | 2010-04-11 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1098 | 37% | 2010-04-09 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2010-03-07 | Lost |
| 1087 | 983 | 65% | 2010-02-28 | Lost |
| 1002 | 957 | 56% | 2009-11-08 | Lost |
| 1032 | 992 | 56% | 2009-07-23 | Lost |
| 978 | 1141 | 28% | 2008-12-29 | Won |
| 1103 | 1133 | 46% | 2008-09-21 | Lost |
| 1087 | 905 | 74% | 2007-10-30 | Won |
| 1228 | 1135 | 63% | 2006-04-10 | Won |
| 916 | 945 | 46% | 2006-03-09 | Lost |
| 1259 | 1029 | 79% | 2006-01-01 | Won |
| 993 | 986 | 51% | 2005-04-23 | Won |
| 985 | 986 | 50% | 2004-10-07 | Lost |
| 1228 | 999 | 79% | 2004-03-03 | Won |
| 847 | 1223 | 10% | 2002-12-20 | Won |
| 954 | 1223 | 18% | 2002-03-27 | Won |
| 1117 | 1121 | 49% | | Lost |
| 1117 | 1219 | 36% | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1040.9 vs 1056.6 has a 47.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).