Friday the 13th
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 375 (72 on the archive and 303 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 182
Defender wins (Russian): 193
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2026-07-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2026-04-04 | Lost | |
| 971 | 966 | 51% | 2026-02-04 | Won | |
| 987 | 1052 | 41% | 2025-10-15 | Won | |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 2025-01-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1198 | 24% | 2024-06-06 | Lost | |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2024-05-29 | Lost | |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2024-04-28 | Lost | |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2024-04-28 | Lost | |
| 1195 | 1140 | 58% | 2024-01-04 | Won | |
| 999 | 841 | 71% | 2023-10-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2023-06-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 992 | 51% | 2022-05-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2021-09-25 | Lost | |
| 1031 | 1219 | 25% | 2021-03-18 | Lost | |
| 1031 | 780 | 81% | 2020-11-18 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2020-05-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2020-01-17 | Lost | |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2019-11-23 | Lost | |
| 1010 | 1009 | 50% | 2019-08-10 | Lost | |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-02-01 | Won | |
| 950 | 1000 | 43% | 2018-11-03 | Lost | |
| 987 | 1085 | 36% | 2018-07-31 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2018-06-02 | Lost | |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2018-04-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2018-02-16 | Lost | |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2017-11-28 | Won | |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2017-10-21 | Won | |
| 1038 | 1035 | 50% | 2017-05-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2017-05-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2017-01-28 | Won | |
| 901 | 1243 | 12% | 2016-03-19 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1174 | 27% | 2016-02-27 | Won | |
| 1127 | 926 | 76% | 2015-11-27 | Won | |
| 968 | 1226 | 18% | 2015-10-08 | Lost | |
| 952 | 1013 | 41% | 2015-03-14 | Lost | |
| 1040 | 1013 | 54% | 2013-11-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2013-10-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2013-05-20 | Won | |
| 907 | 1009 | 36% | 2012-11-16 | Lost | |
| 951 | 985 | 45% | 2012-11-02 | Lost | |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-10-13 | Lost | |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2012-08-17 | Lost | |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 2011-05-27 | Won | |
| 1192 | 1031 | 72% | 2011-04-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2010-10-05 | Lost | |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2010-05-03 | Won | |
| 1101 | 1045 | 58% | 2010-04-11 | Lost | |
| 993 | 1101 | 35% | 2010-04-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2010-03-07 | Lost | |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2010-02-28 | Lost | |
| 1008 | 957 | 57% | 2009-11-08 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2009-07-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1196 | 24% | 2008-12-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1100 | 36% | 2008-09-21 | Lost | |
| 1103 | 904 | 76% | 2007-10-30 | Won | |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2006-04-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1021 | 47% | 2006-03-09 | Lost | |
| 1269 | 1035 | 79% | 2006-01-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2005-04-23 | Won | |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2005-02-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2004-10-07 | Lost | |
| 1233 | 999 | 79% | 2004-03-03 | Won | |
| 1087 | 1074 | 52% | 2003-10-31 | Lost | |
| 832 | 1156 | 13% | 2002-12-20 | Won | |
| 956 | 1156 | 24% | 2002-03-27 | Won | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2002-01-16 | Lost | |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2001-08-07 | Won | |
| 976 | 1263 | 16% | 2001-07-14 | Won | |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | Lost | ||
| 1086 | 1218 | 32% | Won |
Attacking (34 wins) average ELOs: 1031.2 vs 1055.2 has a 46.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).