Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (British / French): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1050 | 1050 | 50% | 2026-03-09 | Won |
| 991 | 1031 | 44% | 2025-07-12 | Lost |
| 962 | 962 | 50% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 890 | 890 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1007 | 54% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 999 | 61% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1080 | 999 | 61% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 995 | 1093 | 36% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 984 | 1031 | 43% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 980 | 1073 | 37% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1114 | 59% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1105 | 1054 | 57% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 956 | 948 | 51% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1203 | 754 | 93% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1131 | 956 | 73% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1190 | 31% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1203 | 27% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1133 | 41% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1073 | 980 | 63% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 960 | 1073 | 34% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1073 | 980 | 63% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1245 | 1342 | 36% | 2005-03-10 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1245 | 20% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1042 | 67% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1066 | 56% | 2003-01-28 | Won |
| 1173 | 1303 | 32% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1052 | 60% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 1034 | 50% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1071.2 vs 1062.9 has a 51.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).