Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (German): 13
Defender wins (British / French): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1006 | 1036 | 46% | 2025-07-12 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 892 | 892 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1008 | 50% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1044 | 1016 | 54% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1044 | 1016 | 54% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 1033 | 1093 | 41% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 1016 | 1031 | 48% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 1041 | 1044 | 50% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1114 | 59% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1091 | 1194 | 36% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 1020 | 946 | 60% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1269 | 747 | 95% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1020 | 67% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1194 | 1146 | 57% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1269 | 18% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1133 | 45% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1041 | 50% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 959 | 1044 | 38% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1041 | 50% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1182 | 1324 | 31% | 2005-03-26 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1182 | 28% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1064 | 64% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1050 | 57% | 2003-01-28 | Won |
| 1115 | 1247 | 32% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1052 | 58% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1090 | 1034 | 58% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1078.4 vs 1070.2 has a 51.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).