Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 27
Attacker wins (German): 11
Defender wins (British / French): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 969 | 969 | 50% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 914 | 914 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 946 | 1004 | 42% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1011 | 1007 | 51% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1050 | 1093 | 44% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 1053 | 1029 | 53% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 1100 | 1056 | 56% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1075 | 47% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1091 | 1114 | 47% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 1071 | 955 | 66% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1275 | 765 | 95% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1205 | 1071 | 68% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1223 | 1184 | 56% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1184 | 40% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1275 | 19% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1133 | 42% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1100 | 44% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 959 | 1056 | 36% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1100 | 44% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1148 | 1273 | 33% | 2005-03-26 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1148 | 33% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1083 | 62% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1275 | 31% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1052 | 57% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1138 | 1033 | 65% | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1081.6 vs 1079.8 has a 50.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).