Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28
Attacker wins (German): 12
Defender wins (British / French): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 944 | 944 | 50% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 900 | 900 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1008 | 49% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1001 | 1018 | 48% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1001 | 1018 | 48% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 1055 | 1093 | 45% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 1010 | 1031 | 47% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 1094 | 1031 | 59% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1248 | 1079 | 73% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1091 | 1219 | 32% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 943 | 56% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1264 | 749 | 95% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1132 | 987 | 70% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1223 | 1136 | 62% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1141 | 61% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1264 | 19% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1132 | 43% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1094 | 41% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 959 | 1031 | 40% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1094 | 41% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1181 | 1285 | 35% | 2005-03-26 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1181 | 30% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1116 | 57% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1254 | 36% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1051 | 58% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1117 | 1033 | 62% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1082.1 vs 1072.8 has a 51.34% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).