Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (German): 13
Defender wins (British / French): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1007 | 1041 | 45% | 2025-07-12 | Lost |
| 962 | 975 | 48% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 892 | 892 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 1004 | 1007 | 50% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1081 | 1010 | 60% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1081 | 1010 | 60% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 1032 | 1093 | 41% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 996 | 1031 | 45% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 984 | 1082 | 36% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1115 | 59% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1090 | 1101 | 48% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 984 | 948 | 55% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1151 | 757 | 91% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1125 | 984 | 69% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1176 | 39% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1151 | 33% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1132 | 41% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1082 | 984 | 64% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 960 | 1082 | 33% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1082 | 984 | 64% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1186 | 1342 | 29% | 2005-03-10 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1186 | 27% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1109 | 58% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1068 | 54% | 2003-01-28 | Won |
| 1181 | 1300 | 34% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1052 | 60% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1084 | 1034 | 57% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1073.9 vs 1066.4 has a 51.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).