Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 548 (14 on the archive and 534 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 271
Defender wins (German): 277
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1154 | 1283 | 32% | 2026-09-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 2022-12-14 | | Lost |
| 978 | 1000 | 47% | 2022-07-13 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2020-06-20 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2015-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2014-12-18 | | Won |
| 953 | 1039 | 38% | 2013-09-14 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 1998-11-15 | | Won |
| 866 | 1167 | 15% | 1995-05-31 | | Lost |
| 1065 | 1000 | 59% | 1994-05-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 1988-03-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 1988-03-06 | | Won |
| 992 | 1080 | 38% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1011.4 vs 1078 has a 40.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).