The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 204 (11 on the archive and 193 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 95
Defender wins (German): 109
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 940 | 1228 | 16% | 2026-09-29 | | Won |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2022-10-27 | | Won |
| 1228 | 779 | 93% | 2020-11-23 | | Won |
| 1015 | 1168 | 29% | 2020-11-08 | | Lost |
| 1006 | 1018 | 48% | 2020-11-05 | | Lost |
| 1168 | 978 | 75% | 2020-11-05 | | Lost |
| 915 | 1000 | 38% | 2020-11-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1114 | 34% | 2016-11-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2004-09-29 | | Won |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | 2001-07-31 | | Won |
| 1111 | 1103 | 51% | 1997-10-08 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1039.5 vs 1041.1 has a 49.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).