A Ridge Too Far
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 70 (37 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 37
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1069 | 932 | 69% | 2026-06-21 | | Won |
| 1019 | 1009 | 51% | 2025-07-12 | | Won |
| 992 | 1015 | 47% | 2025-04-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2025-03-13 | | Won |
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2024-11-25 | | Lost |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2024-09-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1290 | 16% | 2023-11-27 | | Lost |
| 1205 | 1000 | 76% | 2022-04-10 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1004 | 55% | 2021-11-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 962 | 55% | 2021-06-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1431 | 8% | 2020-12-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2020-10-16 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2020-10-03 | | Won |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-09-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2020-08-02 | | Won |
| 1012 | 1006 | 51% | 2020-06-28 | | Won |
| 1431 | 945 | 94% | 2020-04-07 | | Won |
| 1228 | 1000 | 79% | 2019-07-15 | | Lost |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2019-03-01 | | Won |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-05-19 | | Lost |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2017-07-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1142 | 31% | 2017-06-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 886 | 66% | 2016-09-01 | | Tied |
| 845 | 980 | 31% | 2015-11-21 | | Lost |
| 845 | 980 | 31% | 2015-11-21 | | Lost |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2015-06-22 | | Won |
| 1070 | 1000 | 60% | 2014-04-10 | | Lost |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2014-03-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2014-03-26 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2011-10-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2011-01-24 | | Won |
| 1020 | 1029 | 49% | 2010-07-12 | | Won |
| 1013 | 1215 | 24% | 2010-06-27 | | Lost |
| 906 | 1000 | 37% | 2008-09-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2006-09-23 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2006-09-16 | | Won |
| 832 | 1000 | 28% | 2006-09-04 | | Lost |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1020.4 vs 1030.4 has a 48.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).