Motorcycle Probe
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 14 (8 on the archive and 6 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 9
Defender wins (Polish): 4
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 1182 | 29% | 2024-02-12 | Won |
| 933 | 994 | 41% | 2023-05-20 | Lost |
| 933 | 891 | 56% | 2023-05-20 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1046 | 43% | 2023-04-19 | Won |
| 1226 | 976 | 81% | 2018-06-23 | Won |
| 1030 | 930 | 64% | 2018-06-23 | Won |
| 1030 | 1143 | 34% | 2018-06-22 | Tied |
| 1143 | 1030 | 66% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1040.4 vs 1024 has a 52.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).