Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (24 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1145 | 964 | 74% | 2025-09-24 | Won |
| 954 | 980 | 46% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 927 | 1033 | 35% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 997 | 997 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 994 | 1067 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1031 | 1028 | 50% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1074 | 82% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1092 | 1114 | 47% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1100 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 927 | 1058 | 32% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1151 | 54% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 994 | 1028 | 45% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1019 | 56% | 2008-07-09 | Won |
| 1152 | 1066 | 62% | 2006-11-06 | Lost |
| 1152 | 713 | 93% | 2006-04-24 | Won |
| 998 | 1330 | 13% | 2006-04-14 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1147 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1127 | 1130 | 50% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1036 | 998 | 55% | 2005-10-21 | Lost |
| 1145 | 975 | 73% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1064.9 vs 1041.8 has a 53.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).