Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 61 (17 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 33
Defender wins (American): 28
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 960 | 1033 | 40% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1025 | 1025 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 1010 | 1010 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 993 | 1066 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1032 | 1015 | 52% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1330 | 1073 | 81% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1086 | 1112 | 46% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1098 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 960 | 1089 | 32% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1154 | 53% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 994 | 1015 | 47% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1148 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 1147 | 51% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1181 | 982 | 76% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1074.5 vs 1060.4 has a 52.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).