Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 64 (20 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 35
Defender wins (American): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 998 | 1033 | 45% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 994 | 1067 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1030 | 1036 | 49% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1329 | 1074 | 81% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1098 | 1114 | 48% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1100 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 998 | 1087 | 37% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1163 | 52% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 994 | 1036 | 44% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1052 | 1000 | 57% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1020 | 54% | 2008-07-09 | Won |
| 1152 | 1048 | 65% | 2006-11-06 | Lost |
| 1152 | 712 | 93% | 2006-04-24 | Won |
| 1100 | 1146 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1115 | 1130 | 48% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1158 | 982 | 73% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1079 vs 1039.3 has a 55.69% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).