Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (19 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 34
Defender wins (American): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 998 | 1033 | 45% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1023 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 979 | 992 | 48% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 994 | 1066 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1031 | 1057 | 46% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1313 | 1074 | 80% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1086 | 1113 | 46% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1100 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 998 | 1086 | 38% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1153 | 53% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 994 | 1057 | 41% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1047 | 64% | 2006-11-06 | Lost |
| 1148 | 704 | 93% | 2006-04-24 | Won |
| 1100 | 1151 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1105 | 1129 | 47% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1189 | 981 | 77% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1081.3 vs 1042.6 has a 55.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).