Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (24 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1196 | 964 | 79% | 2025-09-24 | Won |
| 941 | 977 | 45% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 885 | 1033 | 30% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 995 | 980 | 52% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-05-15 | Won |
| 994 | 1067 | 40% | 2018-03-07 | Won |
| 1031 | 1003 | 54% | 2015-06-20 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1074 | 82% | 2015-03-31 | Won |
| 1088 | 1114 | 46% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1100 | 34% | 2014-01-30 | Lost |
| 885 | 1058 | 27% | 2013-01-12 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1100 | 62% | 2012-01-26 | Won |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 994 | 1003 | 49% | 2009-01-01 | Won |
| 1052 | 1000 | 57% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1019 | 57% | 2008-07-09 | Won |
| 1151 | 1066 | 62% | 2006-11-06 | Lost |
| 1151 | 713 | 93% | 2006-04-24 | Won |
| 1048 | 1341 | 16% | 2006-04-14 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1147 | 43% | 2006-04-01 | Won |
| 1174 | 1130 | 56% | 2006-01-28 | Won |
| 1028 | 1048 | 47% | 2005-10-21 | Lost |
| 1196 | 951 | 80% | 2005-10-20 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1069.1 vs 1038.1 has a 54.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).