The Chernichivo Shuffle
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 88 (18 on the archive and 70 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 48
Defender wins (German (SS)): 40
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 969 | 1029 | 41% | 2023-08-12 | Won |
| 965 | 956 | 51% | 2023-08-12 | Won |
| 1073 | 1175 | 36% | 2023-05-08 | Won |
| 940 | 923 | 52% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1430 | 974 | 93% | 2021-12-19 | Won |
| 1018 | 1120 | 36% | 2021-10-09 | Lost |
| 993 | 1018 | 46% | 2020-11-29 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1220 | 25% | 2018-06-18 | Won |
| 1051 | 1223 | 27% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1129 | 1128 | 50% | 2016-10-05 | Lost |
| 1085 | 987 | 64% | 2009-01-12 | Won |
| 1031 | 1212 | 26% | 2007-10-27 | Won |
| 1212 | 1016 | 76% | 2007-05-27 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1176 | 46% | 2007-01-29 | Won |
| 1149 | 1064 | 62% | 2006-08-06 | Lost |
| 1209 | 983 | 79% | 2006-04-22 | Won |
| 1313 | 1159 | 71% | 2005-08-09 | Won |
| 1060 | 1343 | 16% | 2004-12-04 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1100.3 vs 1094.8 has a 50.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).