The Yelnya Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 161 (41 on the archive and 120 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 91
Defender wins (Russian): 70
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1192 | 1029 | 72% | 2026-01-24 | | Won |
| 1188 | 1031 | 71% | 2026-01-23 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1029 | 65% | 2026-01-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2025-04-04 | | Won |
| 1061 | 1192 | 32% | 2024-08-08 | | Lost |
| 996 | 963 | 55% | 2023-11-16 | | Won |
| 1080 | 951 | 68% | 2023-08-28 | | Won |
| 1100 | 1056 | 56% | 2023-01-27 | | Won |
| 976 | 977 | 50% | 2022-02-17 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2021-10-20 | | Lost |
| 947 | 1126 | 26% | 2021-02-09 | | Lost |
| 945 | 1000 | 42% | 2021-01-23 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1217 | 17% | 2020-12-12 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2018-10-14 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1218 | 37% | 2018-03-11 | | Won |
| 1125 | 1218 | 37% | 2018-03-11 | | Won |
| 1075 | 1013 | 59% | 2018-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2015-04-03 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1011 | 69% | 2014-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1021 | 1241 | 22% | 2014-09-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2013-07-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2013-06-18 | | Won |
| 1020 | 1063 | 44% | 2013-03-09 | | Won |
| 1108 | 968 | 69% | 2012-05-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2011-02-26 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2010-09-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2009-03-02 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2008-10-26 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1012 | 60% | 2008-10-07 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 1233 | 36% | 2008-09-11 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2008-01-15 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1021 | 69% | 2007-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2007-07-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2007-02-16 | | Won |
| 981 | 1101 | 33% | 2007-01-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2006-11-24 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2006-10-19 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2006-10-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2006-10-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2006-10-03 | | Won |
| 969 | 1035 | 41% | 2006-09-19 | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1062.7 vs 1061.5 has a 50.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).