The Yelnya Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 161 (41 on the archive and 120 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 91
Defender wins (Russian): 70
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1215 | 1023 | 75% | 2026-01-24 | Won |
| 1217 | 1031 | 74% | 2026-01-23 | Won |
| 1155 | 992 | 72% | 2026-01-23 | Won |
| 1118 | 1135 | 48% | 2025-04-04 | Won |
| 1070 | 1215 | 30% | 2024-08-08 | Lost |
| 986 | 963 | 53% | 2023-11-16 | Won |
| 1080 | 951 | 68% | 2023-08-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1097 | 59% | 2023-01-27 | Won |
| 998 | 977 | 53% | 2022-02-17 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1251 | 37% | 2021-10-20 | Lost |
| 947 | 1098 | 30% | 2021-02-09 | Lost |
| 948 | 963 | 48% | 2021-01-23 | Lost |
| 940 | 1224 | 16% | 2020-12-12 | Lost |
| 909 | 909 | 50% | 2018-10-14 | Won |
| 1170 | 1217 | 43% | 2018-03-11 | Won |
| 1134 | 1217 | 38% | 2018-03-11 | Won |
| 1083 | 1013 | 60% | 2018-01-14 | Lost |
| 1129 | 982 | 70% | 2015-04-03 | Lost |
| 1129 | 1011 | 66% | 2014-10-07 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1237 | 23% | 2014-09-26 | Won |
| 1060 | 1056 | 51% | 2013-07-15 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1117 | 45% | 2013-06-18 | Won |
| 1042 | 1064 | 47% | 2013-03-09 | Won |
| 1107 | 969 | 69% | 2012-05-22 | Won |
| 1028 | 1015 | 52% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1129 | 963 | 72% | 2010-09-03 | Won |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2009-03-02 | Won |
| 1233 | 1146 | 62% | 2008-10-26 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1012 | 54% | 2008-10-07 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1233 | 36% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1036 | 53% | 2008-01-15 | Won |
| 1001 | 1021 | 47% | 2007-11-11 | Lost |
| 1085 | 987 | 64% | 2007-07-16 | Won |
| 1190 | 1080 | 65% | 2007-02-16 | Won |
| 981 | 1101 | 33% | 2007-01-20 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2006-11-24 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2006-10-19 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2006-10-19 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2006-10-12 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2006-10-03 | Won |
| 969 | 1035 | 41% | 2006-09-19 | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1075 vs 1067.5 has a 51.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).