The Marco Polo Bridge Incident
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34
Attacker wins (Japanese): 16
Defender wins (Chinese): 18
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1098 | 1098 | 50% | 2025-09-11 | Won |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2023-08-22 | Won |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2023-08-19 | Won |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2023-08-17 | Won |
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2023-04-05 | Lost |
| 964 | 1190 | 21% | 2023-01-17 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1190 | 39% | 2020-08-13 | Won |
| 1056 | 1037 | 53% | 2019-12-31 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2018-06-22 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1156 | 58% | 2017-03-20 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1142 | 60% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 1416 | 1333 | 62% | 2015-01-21 | Won |
| 1062 | 1102 | 44% | 2014-06-28 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1151 | 46% | 2012-05-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-03-18 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1128 | 62% | 2011-07-31 | Won |
| 1013 | 920 | 63% | 2011-07-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 936 | 51% | 2011-06-03 | Won |
| 1102 | 1133 | 46% | 2011-02-12 | Lost |
| 936 | 1170 | 21% | 2011-02-03 | Lost |
| 936 | 982 | 43% | 2011-01-29 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1247 | 26% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 1051 | 928 | 67% | 2010-09-19 | Won |
| 1046 | 1139 | 37% | 2010-07-25 | Won |
| 928 | 1051 | 33% | 2010-01-01 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1171 | 29% | 2009-09-25 | Lost |
| 1165 | 980 | 74% | 2009-09-23 | Won |
| 1165 | 1014 | 70% | 2009-05-23 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1203 | 27% | 2008-10-01 | Lost |
| 983 | 1127 | 30% | 2008-01-26 | Lost |
| 986 | 913 | 60% | 2007-12-02 | Won |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2007-10-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 1138 | 52% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1103 | 1118 | 48% | | Lost |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1070 vs 1090.6 has a 47.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).