The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 10 (7 on the archive and 3 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (NKPA): 3
Defender wins (American): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1161 | 1188 | 46% | 2026-07-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1020 | 47% | 2021-09-12 | | Lost |
| 1063 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-10-08 | | Won |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-11-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2018-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1019 | 52% | 2018-04-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1241 | 20% | 2007-03-09 | | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1048.1 vs 1080.9 has a 45.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).